Democrat James Talarico has surged ahead of Republican Ken Paxton in a new internal poll for Texas State Senate District 9. The data, released by the Quorum Report, suggests a massive shift in voter sentiment within the Fort Worth-area district.
The 28-point swing in Tarrant County
A recent internal Republican poll indicates that Democrat James Talarico holds an 11-point lead over Republican Ken Paxton in Texas State Senate District 9. according to the Quorum Report, Talarico captured 52 percent of the vote share, while Paxton trailed with 41 percent. This represents a massive 28-point swing away from the GOP when compared to Donald Trump's 2024 performance in the same district.
The momentum for Talarico is reflected across multiple data points.. As reported by the Quorum Report, other surveys have echoed this trend, including an Emerson College poll that showed a one-percentage-point lead for the Democrat and a Siena College/ReconMR poll placing him ahead by six points. Even prediction markets are leaning toward a Democratic victory, with Kalshi giving Talarico a 59 percent chance of winning and Polymarket projecting a 62 percent probability.
A poitical landscape transformed since 1991
The current polling suggests a fundamental shift in a district that has long been a Republican stronghold. This trend follows a significant political upset in January, when Democrat Taylor Rehmet defeated Republican Leigh Wambsganss by more than 14 points in a special election. That victory marked the first time District 9 had voted for a Democratic candidate since 1991.
This localized shift is part of a broader strategic effort by Texas Democrats to capture majorities in both the House and Senate. By flipping seats in areas like Tarrant County, Democrats hope to build a legislative buffer that could restrict the ability of a second Trump administration to pass major legislation during its final two years.
Ken Paxton’s $5 million MAGA Inc. lifeline
Republican candidate Ken Paxton is attempting to counter this momentum through aggressive fundraising and high-profile endorsements. Federal Election Commission filings show that Paxton recently secured $5 million from MAGA Inc., the primary political action committee supporting Donald Trump. This financial boost comes as Paxton seeks to solidify his standing after defeating incumbent Senator John Cornyn in a May primary.
Paxton’s path to the nomination was not without friction, as he has faced significant controversy within his own party. In 2023, the GOP-led Texas House impeched Paxton following allegations of misuse of power, though he was subsequently acquitted by the state Senate. Despite these challenges,his ability to secure Trump's endorsement helped him navigate the primary contest against Cornyn, who had held the Senate seat since 2002.
The missing polling memo at Quorum Report
Despite the striking numbers, the transparency of the primary data remains an open question for political analysts. The Quorum Report noted that it published these internal results without releasing a formal polling memo or detailing the specific methodology used to gather the numbers.
This lack of documentation leaves several questions unanswered:Who exactly was contacted to reach the 600 likely voters, and how was the margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points calculated? While the Quorum Report described the decision to withhold the memo as a "judgment call," the move has drawn criticism from professional pollsters who rely on methodological transparency to verify results.
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