California's gubernatorial race remains too close to call a week after polls closed, with Xavier Becerra (27.7%) and Steve Hilton (25.1%) leading but Tom Steyer close behind at 22.4% after spending a record $557 million of his own money, according to state finance records tracked by the report. The top two candidates—regardless of party—will advance to the November runoff under California's jungle primary system, and with 17% of the vote still uncounted, the outcome is far from settled.

Becerra's 27.7% lead vs. Hilton's 25.1%: the math with 17% uncounted

As the source reports, Xavier Becerra, a Democrat, holds a narrow lead over Republican Steve Hilton, but neither candidate is yet secure. With 83% of precincts reporting, Becerra's 27.7% share gives him a 2.6-point margin over Hilton—but that gap could shrink or widen depending on which voters are represented in the uncounted ballots.. The race for second place is especially fluid: Hilton's 25.1% leaves him only 2.7 points ahead of Steyer's 22.4%.. The report notes that California's vote-counting process often favors late-arriving mail ballots, which tend to lean Democratic, potentially benefiting Becerra and Steyer.

Tom Steyer's $557 million experiment: how self-funding reached historic levels

Steyer's out-of-pocket expenses total $557,781,638, including a $213 million direct investment in his gubernatorial bid,according to the source. That figure alone eclipses the $144 million Meg Whitman spent in her 2010 governor campaign, previously the state's most expensive self-funded bid. The report says candidates collectively invested roughly $250 million of their own money this cycle—nearly ten times the $28 million spent in the 2022 governor's race and a new record since California began digital campaign finance records in 1999.. Steyer's personal contribution accounts for more than double that total combined self-funding, an anomaly that has reshaped the race's financial dynamics.

What the uncounted 17% could mean for the second runoff spot

The 17% of ballots still outstanding—potentially hundreds of thousands of votes—will determine whether Steve Hilton or Tom Steyer faces Xavier Becerra in November. The source does not specify the geographic or partisan breakdown of those uncounted votes, but historical patterns suggest mail ballots from Democratic-leaning counties could push Steyer ahead.. Hilton's lead is thin, and every uncounted precinct could shift the second-place position. A key open question is whether Steyer's massive spending actually converted votes or simply saturated media markets—the source provides no polling on spending effectiveness.

Who is the unnamed other candidate in the jungle primary?

While the report focuses on the top three, California's jungle primary featured several lesser-known candidates who collectively drew a share of votes. The source does not name or detail their totals, leaving a gap in understanding how votes might have been split. For instance , candidates like Eleni Kounalakis and Yvonne Yiu—both self-funders in past cycles—did not make the top three, and their supporters' second-choice preferences remain unknown. The report also omits the impact of independent expenditures by outside groups, which could have influenced the outcome beyond Steyer's personal spending.

An echo of Meg Whitman's 2010 bid, but with a steeper price tag

Meg Whitman's $144 million self-funded campaign in 2010 set a high bar for personal investment in California gubernatorial races, but Steyer's $557 million dwarf that figure, according to the source. The comparison highlights a troubling trend: wealthy candidates increasingly treat gubernatorial campaigns as personal investments, raising questions about the influence of money in California politics. The report notes that before Steyer, the largest self-funded bid was Whitman's, followed by Steve Poizner's $14 million in 2006. Steyer's spending is not just a record—it's a quantum leap that redefines what 'self-funded' means in one of the nation's most expensive states.