Keir Starmer is intensifying his political manoeuvres ahead of the Makerfield by‑election on June 18, where Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham currently enjoys a double‑digit lead.. The Labour leader is banking on a suite of “legacy” policies, including a proposed under‑16s social‑media ban, to bolster his standing with backbench MPs while fending off a potential leadership challenge.

Makerfield poll shows Burnham 49% lead over Reform rival

According to a Survation poll released on Thursday, Burnham commands 49% of the vote in the critical Makerfield contest, outpacing Reform Party candidate Kenyon at 39% and leaving Restore Britain’s Rebecca Shepherd on 8%.

The research also placed the Green Party’s Sarah Wakefield at 2% and the Liberal Democrats and Conservatives each at 1%, suggesting a fragmented opposition that could prove decisive if right‑wing voters coalesce arround the Restore candidate.

Downing Street lines up under‑16s social‑media ban as “legacy” policy

Sources say Downing Street is preparing to roll out an under‑16s social‑media ban, a move framed as a long‑term legacy initiative aimed at improving the Prime Minister’s rapport with Labour MPs.

The policy is being touted as a tangible achievement that Starmer can point to in the run‑up to the by‑election, hoping to counteract any perception that his government is drifting away from grassroots concerns.

Burnham’s leadership ambitions stir Labour factions

Burnham has made no secret of his intention to seek the Labour leadership, a prospect that is already prompting strategic calculations within the party. Some of his allies urge an immediate push for a leadership bid if he wins Makerfield, while others counsel patience until he secures a foothold at Westminster.

In a video posted on social media, Burnham praised the “warmth of reaction on the doorstep” and declared, “I’m fighting for every vote, I’m loving every minute,” signalling his readiness to translate local momentum into a national challenge.

Potential split of right‑wing vote could decide Makerfield

Analysts note that the outcome may hinge on whether right‑wing voters rally behind Restore Britain’s Shepherd or disperse among smaller parties. The margin of error in constituency surveys is traditionally high, meaning the 8% support for Shepherd could swing the result.

If the right‑wing bloc remains fragmented, Burnham’s lead could widen; a consolidated opposition, however, might narrow the gap enough for a late‑stage surge by Labour’s official candidate.

Who will contest the leadership if Burnham wins?

Even if Burnham’s victory triggers a leadership contest, Starmer would not need the customary 80 MP nominations to stay on the ballot, though many doubt he would willingly endure a hustings campaign.

Former health secretary Wes Streeting has signalled his own interest, adding another potential challenger to a field that could become crowded and unpredictable.

As the final ten days tick down, Westminster is already watching Burnham’s next move, while Starmer’s team banks on policy fireworks to keep the party’s internal balance intact.