The $30 million toe in the water

Reform UK has extended its national polling lead over Labour to nine points ahead of the crucial Makerfield by-election, with the party's support increasing to 29 per cent. The positive polling news will boost morale within Reform's ranks ahead of the Makerfield contest on 18 June.

According to a new Opinium survey, Reform UK's support has increased to 29 per cent, while Labour remains on 20 per cent. The Conservatives are on 17 per cent, the Greens on 14 per cent, and the Liberal Democrats on 11 per cent.

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The Makerfield vote has been dubbed the most consequential by-election of recent times after Andy Burnham, the Greater Manchester mayor, was selected as Labour's candidate in the seat. If he wins the by-election, Mr Burnham has vowed to go on and challenge Keir Starmer for the Labour leadership with a view to replacing him as Prime Minister.

But the Opinium poll suggested voters are unenthusiastic about the prospect of Mr Burnham entering Downing Street, with more likely to believe Tony Blair would make a better PM than any of Labour's current leading figures.

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A new Opinium survey showed Reform UK is supported by 29 per cent of voters - up two percentage points since last month and the party's highest share in three months . tony Blair received a net rating of -6 when voters were asked whether he did a good or bad job as PM,making him less popular than Margaret Thatcher and John Major.

Sir Tony - who recently made an explosive intervention amid Labour's infighting - was shown to hold a substantial lead over Sir Keir, with 39 per cent saying the ex-premier would do a better job than the current PM . This compared with just 16 per cent who think Sir Tony would do worse than Sir Keir.

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The Opinium poll also found that voters are most likely to approve of Tory leader Kemi Badenoch's response to the Henry Nowak murder. Mrs Badenoch recorded a net approval score of +12 on her handling of the issue, while Lib Dem leader Ed Davey had a marginally positive response.

Sir Keir, Green leader Zack Polanski, and Mr Farage all received net negative ratings. Mr Farage received the weakest assessment overall, with more respondents disapproving than approving of his response.

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The Reform leader said people should respond with 'pure cold rage' to Mr Nowak's treatment , which he claimed was evidence of a 'two-tier culture'. He was accused by political opponents of stoking racial tensions with his remarks, following riots in Southampton near to where the murder took place in December.