Reform UK leaders Nigel Farage and Richard Tice have launched a concerted effort to stop Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham from winning the Makerfield by-election. The contest follows a strategic move by MP Josh Simons to vacate his seat, clearing a path for Burnham to return to the House of Commons.

Josh Simons' calculated exit for Andy Burnham

The vacancy in Makerfield was not an accident of timing but a deliberate political maneuver. According to the report, incumbent MP Josh Simons, previously seen as a loyalist to Keir Starmer, stepped aside specifically to facilitate the entry of Andy Burnham into Parliament. This move is designed to provide the Greater Manchester Mayor with a legislative platform from which he can pursue a campaign to eventually lead the Labour Party and potentially occupy 10 Downing Street.

For Andy Burnham, this transition from local government to national leadership is a high-risk gamble. While the Mayor of Greater Manchester maintains a high public profile, returning to Westminster requires a fresh mandate from a constituency that may have evolved beyond its traditional political loyalties. The move signals a potential internal power struggle within the Labour Party, as Burnham seeks to position himself as a viable alternative to the current leadership.

The Wigan Council sweep and Reform UK's May momentum

Reform UK is basing its confidence on recent electoral data from the North of England. As the report says, an analysis of the May local elections reveals that Reform candidates achieved a clean sweep in every single ward they contested among the ten wards that fall wholly or partially within the Makerfield parliamentary constituency. This sucecss within the Wigan Council suggests a significant erosion of the traditional Labour stronghold in the region.

This localized momentum has emboldened Nigel Farage to commit every available resource to the race. The party is not merely looking for a strong showing but is eyeing a total victory. Some projections for the 2029 general election already categorize Makerfield as a safe win for Reform UK, indicating that the shift in voter alignment may be more permanent than a temporary swing in a single by-election.

Erasing the 5,399-vote Labour majority

The central challenge for Reform UK is overcoming the existing mathematical advantage held by the Labour Party. In the 2024 general election, Labour secured a majority of 5,399 votes in the Makerfield area. However, Richard Tice, the deputy leader of Reform UK, has been vocal about his intention to "make Burnham history," arguing that the Northern electorate has shifted significantly against the current Labour establishment.

The battle for Makerfield is being framed as a clash between the established party machinery and a rising populist movement. While Simon Opher, the MP for Stroud and a supporter of Andy Burnham, argues that the Mayor possesses the unique charisma needed to unite the Labour Party, Reform UK believes the populist tide is now too strong to be stemmed by individual personality. the result will serve as a litmus test for whether Reform UK's surge can translate into a parliamentary seat in a former Labour heartland.

Why other North West MPs rebuffed Andy Burnham

One of the most intriguing aspects of this political drama is the reported resistance Andy Burnham faced before securing the Makerfield seat. The report notes that Burnham was reportedly rebuffed by several other Labour MPs in the North West before the opportunity in Makerfield became viable. This suggests that the Mayor's ambitions may not be as universally welcomed within his own party as his public profile implies.

It remains unclear which specific MPs declined to step aside for Andy Burnham or what the nature of their objections were. Furthermore, the source does not provide a response from the Labour Party leadership regarding the strategic nature of Josh Simons' resignation . These missing details leave open the question of whether Burnham is entering Makerfield as a party-sanctioned leader or as a rogue operator attempting a flank attack on the party hierarchy.