A recent poll of 850 Reform UK members indicates that 90% favor a partnership with the Conservative Party if neither wins a majority. The data highlights a strong desire for a right-wing alliance despite public opposition from Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch.

The 90% mandate for a Conservative alliance

According to a survey conducted by Lord Ashcroft, an overwhelming 90% of Reform UK members believe their party should enter a coalition or strike a deal with the Conservatives in the event of a hung parliament. This internal appetite for cooperation is stark, as only 7% of the polled members would prefer for Reform UK to remain in opposition, and a negligible 1% would consider a pact with the Liberal Democrats, the Greens,or the Labour Party.

However, this grassroots enthusiasm faces a significant hurdle at the leadership level. As the report says, Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch has explicitly ruled out such a deal,arguing that Reform UK harbors "left-wing ideas." Meanwhile, Reform UK leader Nigel Farage has described the prospect of a coalition as "highly undesirable," though he has stopped short of a total rejection, leaving a narrow window for negotiation if electoral math forces his hand.

Why 91% of members fear Whitehall obstruction

The survey reveals a profound sense of alienation from the British state, with 91% of Reform UK members believing that Whitehall will actively obstruct the policies and ministers of a Reform-led government.. This distrust is not limited to the civil service; 89% of respondents agree that the broader political establishment will employ every possible means to prevent Reform UK from taking power.

This sentiment reflects a broader trend of anti-establishment populism that has defined the party's rise. By framing the civil service as a hostile entity, Reform UK positions itself not just as a political alternative, but as an insurgent force fighting a "deep state" bureaucracy. This narrative serrves to galvanize a base that views the traditional machinery of government as fundamentally rigged against their interests.

Zia Yusuf and the battle for Farage's succession

While 80% of members want Nigel Farage to remain in his leadership role even if the party fails to form a government, the survey provides a glimpse into the party's future hierarchy. Zia Yusuf, the party's combative home affairs spokesman, emerged as the most popular potential successor, cited by 22% of members. He is followed closely by Deputy Leader Richard Tice at 21%, while Chairman Lee Anderson trailed significantly at 6%.

The internal competition for leadership suggests a party that is beginning to think beyond the charisma of Nigel Farage. The narrow margin between Zia Yusuf and Richard Tice indicates a potential split in the party's ideological direction—between Yusuf's more combative approach and Tice's established role within the party structure.

The 42% shift toward Rupert Lowe's Restore Britain

Despite the perceived unity on a Tory deal, the survey reveals a surprising fragility in Reform UK's loyalty. If no Reform UK candidate were available on the ballot, 42% of members would cast their vote for Restore Britain, the right-wing party founded by Rupert Lowe following his split from Nigel Farage. Only 33% would return to the Conservatives, and 13% would abstain entirely.

This suggests that a significant portion of the Reform UK base is more attracted to hard-right insurgency than to the Conservative brand itself. It also raises critical questions that the source does not fully answer: specifically, why Kemi Badenoch views Reform UK as possessing "left-wing ideas" when the membership is so heavily skewed toward former Tories—73% of whom previously supported the Conservatives. Furthermore, it remains unclear how Nigel Farage intends to manage the friction between his members' desire for a coalition and his own public distaste for such an arrangement.