Democratic challenger Graham Platner and incumbent Republican Sen. Susan Collins are now tied at 46 percent in a new internal poll, a sharp drop for Platner after explicit private messages surfaced. The poll, commissioned by a pro‑Collins PAC, also records a surge in unfavorable views of Platner,raising doubts about his once‑comfortable lead in the pivotal Maine Senate race.

Internal poll ties Platner and Collins at 46 percent

The consulting firm’s survey, released this week, shows the two candidates virtually deadlocked, each with 46 percent support among likely voters. According to the poll,Platner’s net favorability has slipped into negative territory, with only 40 percent expressing a positive impression and 49 percent viewing him unfavorably, up from 29 percent earlier in the year.

Scandal‑driven shift: 59 percent say revelations hurt Platner

When asked whether the disclosed private messaging would affect their vote, 59 percent of respondents said it would make them less likely to support Platner, while a third said it would have no effect. The remaining respondents were either unsure or claimed the scandal might even boost his appeal, highlighing a polarized electorate.

Historical context: Collins’ comeback record in Maine

Sen. susan Collins has a long history of narrowing gaps against strong Democratic challengers, most notably in 2020 when she overcame a poll deficit to defeat Sara Gideon by over eight points. Analysts note that internal surveys often overstate a candidate’s advantage, and the modest four‑point margin now reported is far smaller than the double‑digit leads Platner once enjoyed in public polls.

Democratic calculus: Why the party still backs Platner

Despite the controversy, Democrats are reluctant to replace Platner because his candidacy still offers a pathway to flip a seat that has been held by Collins for decades. Party strategists are emphasizing policy platforms and attempting to distance the campaign from the personal scandal, hoping to preserve the momentum built earlier in the cycle.

Open question : Will the primary on Tuesday confirm the shift?

The upcoming state primary will be the first concrete test of whether the scandal has fundamentally altered voter preferences or if Platner’s earlier advantage can survive the onslaught. As the race tightens, both campaigns are mobilising resources, and the result will shape national strategies ahead of the November Senate elections.