A comprehensive new poll of London voters paints a concerning picture for the Labour Party, revealing a significant erosion of support and a surge in popularity for both the Green Party and Reform UK.

Labour's Declining Support

The ‘MRP’ poll, conducted by More in Common and surveying 2,646 adults over three weeks, indicates a 15-point drop in support for Labour since the general election. Despite remaining in the lead, Labour’s support has dwindled to 28%.

Green Party Gains in Inner London

The Green Party now commands 20% of the vote, positioning them for potential historic gains. The poll reveals the Green Party is currently the most popular party in Hackney, leading by three percentage points. They are also closely trailing Labour in Islington, Lambeth, and Lewisham, within a margin of just two points.

Projections suggest the Green Party could secure second place in 16 boroughs and come within five points of Labour in an additional five, indicating a substantial challenge to Labour's dominance in inner London.

Reform UK's Surge in Outer Boroughs

Beyond the Green Party’s gains, Reform UK is experiencing a surge in support in the outer boroughs. The poll projects Reform UK to lead the vote in Havering by a significant nine-point margin.

In Bexley, Reform UK is now tied with the Conservatives, and in Bromley, they are poised to secure 21.3% of the vote. Their support extends to Barking and Dagenham, where they have reached 24%, despite Labour’s complete control of the borough in the 2022 elections.

Conservative and Liberal Democrat Prospects

While Labour faces the most substantial potential losses, the Conservatives are also bracing for a difficult night. Current projections indicate the Conservative Party will be reduced to a handful of strongholds in outer London, leading in only five boroughs: Bexley, Bromley, Harrow, Hillingdon, and Kensington and Chelsea.

The Liberal Democrats are expected to maintain their dominance in affluent southwest London areas like Richmond, Kingston, and Sutton, despite minimal progress since the last local elections.

Broader Electoral Fragmentation

The poll suggests a broader trend of electoral fragmentation impacting London, mirroring national political shifts. Luke Tryl, UK Director of More in Common, emphasized that the 2026 elections are likely to demonstrate that London is not immune to this fragmentation.

He noted the potential for significant Green gains in former Labour strongholds and inroads for Reform UK in outer London boroughs previously considered safe for the Conservatives. The possibility of gains for independent candidates further contributes to the potential for a dramatically altered electoral map on May 8th.

Party Responses

A Labour source criticized the Green Party, warning that their potential gains would lead to ‘councils of chaos’ and asserting that Zack Polanski’s policies are unsuitable for both London and the UK. The source affirmed Labour’s commitment to campaigning for every vote, emphasizing that the upcoming election on May 7th is the only poll that truly matters.