London Political Landscape Shifts, Poll Reveals

A comprehensive new poll of London voters indicates the Labour Party is facing challenges from both the Green Party and Reform UK. The research, conducted by More in Common, surveyed 2,646 adults over three weeks to assess voting intentions.

Labour Support Declines

The findings reveal a 15 percentage point drop in support for Labour since the last general election. Despite currently maintaining a lead, Labour’s support has fallen to 28%.

Green Party Gains Momentum

The Green Party has experienced a significant surge in popularity, gaining 10 percentage points. They are now a strong contender, securing 20% of the vote and potentially achieving their highest-ever vote share in London boroughs.

The poll highlights the Green Party’s strength in inner London, leading in Hackney by three points and closely trailing Labour in Islington, Lambeth, and Lewisham. Projections suggest they could finish second in 16 boroughs and within five points of Labour in five more.

Reform UK Makes Inroads in Outer London

Beyond the Green Party’s gains, Reform UK is making significant progress in outer London. The party is projected to win the most votes in Havering, leading by nine points, and is in a tight race with the Conservatives in Bexley.

Reform UK is also expected to gain substantially in Bromley (21.3%) and Barking and Dagenham (24%), despite Labour’s dominance in the 2022 elections.

Conservative and Liberal Democrat Prospects

The Conservative Party is projected to be reduced to a handful of strongholds in outer London, leading only in Bexley, Bromley, Harrow, Hillingdon, and Kensington and Chelsea. The Liberal Democrats are expected to maintain their dominance in affluent southwest London boroughs like Richmond, Kingston, and Sutton.

Expert Analysis and Election Outlook

Luke Tryl, UK Director at More in Common, stated the 2026 elections are likely to demonstrate that London is not immune to broader electoral fragmentation. He noted the potential for the Green Party to gain control or become the largest party in numerous inner London boroughs, while Reform UK is poised for similar gains in outer London.

Labour Expresses Concerns

A Labour source expressed concern over potential Green Party gains, warning of ‘councils of chaos’ and criticizing Zack Polanski’s policies. The party affirmed its commitment to fighting for every vote, emphasizing the importance of the upcoming election on May 7th.

Implications for British Politics

The poll suggests a potentially unrecognizable electoral map for London. The Green Party’s surge reflects growing environmental concerns, while Reform UK’s gains indicate dissatisfaction with mainstream parties. Traditional party loyalties are weakening, and voters are increasingly open to new options.