A new YouGov poll indicates substantial losses for the Labour Party in the upcoming London local elections, with the Green Party and Reform UK poised for significant gains.

Projected Gains for Green and Reform UK

The research suggests a major breakthrough for both the Green Party and Reform UK, challenging Labour’s long-held dominance in the capital. The poll projects the Greens to achieve the highest vote share in four London boroughs – Hackney, Lambeth, Lewisham, and Waltham Forest – traditionally Labour strongholds.

Reform UK is predicted to lead in three boroughs: Barking and Dagenham, Bromley, and Havering. This model, based on extensive voter polling, suggests Labour is on track for its worst London result in half a century.

Labour's Declining Support

Labour is projected to win the highest vote share in only 15 councils, a decrease of six compared to 2022. The fragmentation of the vote is a key factor, with all five of England’s largest parties expected to secure double-digit vote shares.

Labour’s projected vote share in London is down 16 percentage points since 2022, falling to around 26 percent. The Conservatives have also seen a decline, dropping nine points to 17 percent.

Rise of the Greens and Reform UK

The Greens are poised to benefit significantly, with a 10-point increase to 22 percent, and Reform UK is experiencing a surge from near zero percent in 2022 to a projected 14 percent. The Liberal Democrats are maintaining a relatively stable position, with a projected 15 percent vote share.

This widespread dispersal of support means that the threshold for winning seats is lower, increasing the potential for upsets.

Potential Leadership Challenge and Wider Elections

The potential for substantial losses comes at a difficult time for Keir Starmer, with allies bracing for a possible leadership challenge following the elections. Beyond London, elections are also scheduled for the Scottish Parliament and Welsh Senedd, adding to the pressure on Labour.

Voter Intentions and Cost of Living Concerns

A separate Ipsos UK poll reinforces the trend, revealing that nearly half of London voters (49 percent) are considering voting Green on May 7th. This indicates a strong desire for change and growing concerns about the cost of living.

The Ipsos poll also shows Labour at 44 percent, the Liberal Democrats at 35 percent, independents at 28 percent, and Reform UK at 16 percent. YouGov’s head of elections, Patrick English, emphasized the national trend of vote fragmentation, noting that the low winning thresholds could lead to unpredictable results.