Allies of Keir Starmer are issuing warnings that replacing him as Labour leader could lead to a period of instability, reminiscent of the economic turmoil following Liz Truss’s brief premiership.

Concerns Over a Leftward Shift

A growing sense of unease is present within the Labour Party as supporters of Starmer highlight the potential consequences of a leadership change, particularly after the upcoming local elections. The core concern is that a new leader representing a significant move to the left – such as Ed Miliband or Angela Rayner – could undermine market confidence and destabilize the economy.

Potential Successors and Internal Opposition

Figures like Ed Miliband and Angela Rayner are specifically mentioned as potential successors who could trigger a negative reaction. An ‘anyone but Ange’ campaign is underway, aiming to prevent Angela Rayner from becoming leader due to concerns about her left-leaning policies.

Grim Electoral Predictions

These anxieties are fueled by consistently poor poll ratings for Labour under Starmer’s leadership. Experts, including Robert Hayward, are forecasting substantial losses in the upcoming local elections, potentially including up to three-quarters of the seats the party is defending and around 1,850 councillors losing their positions.

Challenges Beyond England

Labour’s position in Wales is also considered precarious, with the party likely to finish third. Challenges are also anticipated in Scotland, where hopes of challenging the SNP’s dominance are diminishing.

External Warnings and Internal Lobbying

Former Conservative Prime Minister Sir John Major has urged Labour to resist frequent leadership changes, criticizing the tendency to treat politics as a ‘game show’ and emphasizing the importance of long-term policy solutions. Meanwhile, Angela Rayner is reportedly lobbying Labour MPs to act decisively if they wish to remove Starmer, framing the moment as ‘now or never’.

Alternative Contenders

Should Rayner falter, Ed Miliband is seen as the next likely contender. While Health Secretary Wes Streeting could enter the race, he is considered unlikely to succeed against a left-wing candidate. Supporters of Andy Burnham are also strategizing for his potential return to Westminster.

The Labour Party is currently grappling with internal divisions and the threat of electoral disappointment, fearing the potential consequences of a leadership change.