New AP‑NORC analysis shows that independent voters – a key swing bloc that helped Donald Trump win in 2024 – have steadily turned against him since he took office in July 2024. by spring 2026, only roughly one‑quarter of independents view the president favorably, a sharp drop from the near‑half support recorded early in his second term.

Support Among Non‑College Educated Independents Slides from 48% to 25%

At the start of Trump’s second term, 48% of independents without a college degree expressed a positive opinion of the president, according to the AP‑NORC data. that figure fell to 31% within his first 100 days and sank to about 25% by April 2026. The decline erased the education‑based gap that previously distinguished this group from college‑educated independents.

College‑Educated Independents Also Turn Negative, Closing the Gap

College‑educated independents began the period with only 30% favorable views of Trump and experienced a smaller but still notable drop, bringing their approval in line with the non‑college cohort. As the analysis notes, “both college‑educated and non‑college‑edcuated independents now hold similarly negative assessments of the president.”

Ethnic Sub‑Groups Show Sharp Reversals: Hispanic Independents Fall to 15% During Shutdown

Hispanic independents, who had risen to 46% favorable in the 2024 election, plunged to as low as 15% amid the government shutdown in late 2024 before modestly recovering to around 25% in early 2026. Black independents also displayed weakening support,echoing broader dissatisfaction among minority voters.

Age Divide Persists: Younger Independents Drop, Seniors Remain Steady

Polling indicates that younger independents grew increasingly hostile to Trump over the two‑year span, while those aged 60 and older maintained relatively stable opinions.. This age‑based split mirrors earlier findings that younger Republicans have been swayed by inflation concerns.

What Remains Unclear: Will Independent Backlash Translate to Midterm Losses?

The report does not provide a definitive link between the independent erosion and upcoming midterm outcomes, leaving open questions about turnout, regional variations, and whether Republican candidates can offset the loss with other voter blocs.

According to the AP‑NORC analysis, independents have been “far more responsive to unfolding events,” with their approval moving in step with controversies such as the government shutdown and the early stages of the Iran war. The same source notes that partisan Democrats and Republicans have maintained largely stable views, underscoring the volatility of the independent electorate.