A recent University of North Florida poll indicates Republican Representative Byron Donalds holds a five-point lead over Democrat David Jolly for the 2026 Florida governorship. The survey suggests a tight contest despite Florida's recent trend toward the Republican party.
The 5-point gap in the University of North Florida poll
According to the University of North Florida poll, Republican Representative Byron Donalds currently commands 46 percent of likely voters, while Democrat David Jolly follows with 41 percent. the survey, conducted between July 8 and July 17, 2026, sampled 848 likely voters via phone and web interfaces, resulting in a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.
While the lead is narrow, the data reveals a highly polarized electorate. Six percent of respondents remain undecided, and five percent are leaning toward other candidates. This early snapshot suggests that while the state has trended Republican over the last decade, the 2026 race may not be a landslide based on current name recognition and partisan enthusiasm.
David Jolly's 53 percent lead among Hispanic voters
One of the most striking findings in the report is the divide among Hispanic and Latino voters. david Jolly has secured 53 percent support within this demographic, significantly outpacing Byron Donalds, who holds 35 percent. This represents a potential vulnerability for the Republican ticket, especially when compared to the 2024 presidential election where Donald Trump captured 58 percent of Florida's Latino vote.
The battle for independent voters is even tighter, with Byron Donalds leading David Jolly by a single percentage point (39 percent to 38 percent). this suggests that while the GOP maintains a slight edge with the center, the Democratic path to victory relies heavily on maintaining a strong coalition of Hispanic voters and shifting national conditions in their favor.
An 82 percent probability of a Republican victory
Despite the competitive polling numbers, broader market indicators suggest a much steeper climb for the Democrats. Prediction markets currently assign Republicans an 81-82 percent chance of winning the governorship, reflecting the structural advantages the GOP has built in Florida. As the report says , major election forecasters still view the race as leaning or solidly Republican.
The landscape is further complicated by conflicting data from other sources. A May survey by the Democratic-aligned Change Research gave David Jolly a four-point lead, whereas a poll by Cherry Communications, commissioned by the Florida Chamber of Commerce, showed Byron Donalds ahead by eight points. A separate Stetson University poll also favored the Republican candidate.
Mark Riddle's challenge to the UNF methodology
The validity of these findings has already become a point of contention. Mark Riddle, a senior adviser to the David Jolly campaign, has contested the University of North Florida's methodology, claiming the sample does not accurately reflect the electorate that will actually vote in November. However, Riddle acknowledged that the results still position Jolly as a strong contender.
Several critical variables remain unknown as the race heads toward the August 18, 2026, primaries. It remains unclear how the entry of other candidates—such as Lieutenant Governor Jay Collins on the Republican side or state Representative Dotie Joseph on the Democratic side—will shift the current numbers. Furthermore, the Byron Donalds campaign has not yet issued a formal response to the poll's findings.
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