Denise Powell, a political activist, won the Democratic primary in Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District on Wednesday, defeating state Sen. John Cavanaugh and several other candidates. She will face Brinker Harding, an Omaha City Council member endorsed by President Donald Trump, in the general election. The Omaha-area district, where Republican U.S. Rep. Don Bacon is retiring, is one of Democrats' biggest targets this midterm season.

The 2.1% Margin That Sealed the Primary

Powell led Cavanaugh by 2.1 percentage points, or 1,080 votes, out of more than 51,000 votes counted. The Associated Press called the race after Douglas County election officials said there were only 5,125 outstanding mail-in ballots in the Democratic primary, and a total of 830 provisional ballots from all political parties. Even if all those ballots are counted in the Democratic primary, Cavanaugh would have to win them by about 18 percentage points over Powell to close the gap, a margin he didn't come close to achieving in any of the five vote updtes provided by Douglas County so far.

Nebraska's 'Blue Dot' in Presidential Elections

The 2nd District has gone to Democratic presidential candidates three out of five times since 2008 — a 'blue dot' in an otherwise sea of red. This district is one of just three in the country that supported Democrat Kamala Harris for president in 2024 while also electing a Republican representative. trump won the district in 2016, and the retiring Bacon, who has clashed with Trump, has held the House seat for five terms.

According to the report, the matchup between Powell and Harding is expected to be among this fall's most competitive House races, as Democrats try to win control of the chamber for the second half of Trump's term. The Nebraska GOP said in a statement Wednesday that Republicans are ready to fight back against a 'radical left' that has poured money into the state.

Powell's Political Background and Endorsements

Powell, who is Latina, co-founded Women Who Run Nebraska, a political action committee that supports progressive female candidates, and she has a decade of Democratic political activism. she had the backing of EMILY's List and the Congressional Hispanic Caucus' campaign operation.. Powell has never held office but said her deep connections have helped her with independents and third-party voters, who make up nearly 30% of the district's electorate.

Some Democratic critics argued that a Cavanaugh primary victory would have jeopardized the district's 'blue dot' status because he'd be leaving his valuable state legislative seat, making it easier for Republicans in the Nebraska Legislature to change the law that allows the state to split its electoral votes.

What's at Stake in the General Election

The general election between Powell and Harding is poised to be a closely watched contest. Powell's victory in the primary sets the stage for a high-stakes battle in a district that has been a key focus in presidential elections due to its unique status in splitting electoral votes. The outcome could have significant implications for the balance of power in the U.S. House of Representatives.