A recent survey by The Public Sentiment Institute suggests former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg is currently the favorite among potential 2028 Democratic presidential candidates. The poll, conducted among likely voters in Michigan,reveals a crowded field where a significant potion of the electorate remains undecided.
Pete Buttigieg's 24.2 percent lead in Michigan
According to a report by Newsweek, a hypothetical primary survey conducted by The Public Sentiment Institute (TPSI) between July 25 and 29 found that former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg holds 24.2 percent support. This puts him well ahead of other named contenders, including Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff, who secured 13.9 percent, and Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who followed closely with 10.7 percent.
The survey, which polled 762 likely voters in Michigan, also highlighted the early-stage instability of the race, as 21.7 percent of respondents remained undecided. other notable figures in the TPSI poll included California Governor Gavin Newsom at 10.0 percent, former Vice President Kamala Harris at 5.1 percent, Illinois Governor JB Pritzker at 3.8 percent, and Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro at 3.6 percent .
The gap between TPSI polling and Newsom's 19 percent Polymarket odds
While the Michigan poll favors Pete Buttigieg, prediction markets offer a different perspective on the 2028 race. As reported by Newsweek, data from Polymarket as of Saturday morning placed California Governor Gavin Newsom at a 19 percent chance of winning the nomination,with Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Jon Ossoff tied at 14 percent. On the Kalshi platform, Newsom similarly led with 18 percent, followed by Ossoff at 15 percent and Ocasio-Cortez at 13 percent.
This discrepancy highlights the difference between direct voter sentiment and the expectations of traders. While the TPSI poll captures the current mood of a specific swing-state electorate, platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi reflect speculative bets on viability and institutional momentum. In these markets, Pete Buttigieg's standing is significantly lower, sitting at 5 percent on Polymarket and 5.5 percent on Kalshi.
From Harris's 'I might' to Ossoff's flat rejection
The potential candidates themselves are offering varying degrees of commitment to a 2028 run. Former Vice President Kamala Harris told Reverend Al Sharpton in April, ‘I might. I am thinking about it,’ emphasizing her experience in the West Wing and the Situation Room as key qualifications. Similarly, California Governor Gavin Newsom told The Wall Street Journal in June 2025 that while he is not currently thinking about running, it is a ‘path that I could see unfold.’
In contrast, Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff has explicitly denied interest in the presidency, telling CNN, ‘I am not running for president in 2028.’ Ossoff noted that he is focused on his reelection efforts in Georgia, a race the Cook Political Report currently labels as ‘Lean Democratic.’ Meanwhile, Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has framed her ambitions around policy rather than title, telling David Axelrod that her primary goal is to secure single-payer healthcare and workers’ rights.
Why 21.7 percent of Michigan voters remain undecided
The high percentage of undecided voters in the TPSI poll suggests that the Democratic electorate has not yet coalesced around a post-Biden identity. A critical unknown remains whether the preferences of Michigan voters—a key battleground state—will mirror the national Democratic primary electorate or if the race will shift toward more progressive or moderate poles as the date approaches.
Furthermore, the source indicates a lack of direct engagement from some candidates; Newsweek noted that they reached out to Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s office for comment on Saturday but did not receive a response. Without formal declarations of candidacy, it remains unclear how many of these high-profile figures are actually preparing campaigns versus simply maintaining their public profiles.
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