Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham is currently 20 points ahead of Labour’s own candidate in the Makerfield by‑election, according to the latest poll.. The surge puts him in a strong position to fend off the Reform party, which had been tipped as a likely winner in the constituency.

Polls Show Burnham 20 Points Ahead of Labour Rival

Polling released by More in Common places Burnham at a decisive advantage over the official Labour candidate, with a 20‑point gap that dwarfs the narrow lead he held at the start of the race. The data, cited by the source article, suggests that Burnham’s personal brand is outpacing the party’s traditional support in the area.

Reform Party’s ‘Tailor‑Made’ Target Misses the Mark

Analysts had previously described Makerfield as a constituency “tailor‑made” for the Reform political group, expecting its anti‑establishment message to resonate with voters disillusioned by mainstream parties. Burnham’s campaign video, which blames Margaret Thatcher’s legacy for current woes, appears to have neutralised that narrative by focusing on local concerns rather than national polarisation.

Burnham’s ‘Manchesterism’ Message Counters Neoliberal Critiques

In the video, Burnham promotes what he calls “Manchesterism,” framing it as an end to neoliberal, trickle‑down economics that he says have left places like Makerfield behind. This positioning aligns with his brader political stance expressed at the Labour Party conference, where he once advocated re‑joining the EU before later softening his tone to respect the referendum outcome.

Leadership Ambitions Loom Over By‑Election

Sources close to the mayor suggest that a victory in Makerfield could set the stage for Burnburn to challenge Sir Keir Starmer for Labour leadership, a move that would reshape the party’s direction ahead of the next general election. However, the source notes that the contest remains “a close‑run fight with Reform,” indicating that the outcome is still uncertain.

Wes Streeting’s Brexit Push Adds Tension

Labour MP Wes Streeting,a known rival of Burnham,is expected to revive the internal Labour debate on Brexit,arguing that leaving the EU was a “catastrophic mistake.” Streeting’s stance is backed by “almost nine out of ten Labour members,” according to Labour sources, and could complicate Burnham’s campaign if the issue resurfaces locally.

According to the source, Burnham’s campaign deliberately avoids mentioning Nigel Farage, instead targeting local Reform candidate Mr. Kenyon, signalling a strategy focused on constituency‑level issues rather than national personalities.