Steve Flowers, a political analyst for Action 8, projects that Republican Kay Tuberville will defeat Democrat Doug Jones by roughly 60% to 40% in Alabama’s 2026 gubernatorial contest, should both clear their primaries. He also flags a looming legal challenge over Tuberville’s residency and notes that Democratic anger over new congressional maps could slightly boost turnout,though not enough to overturn the Republican advantage.

Tuberville vs. Jones likely to repeat 2020 Senate showdown

Flowers expects the Republican and Democratic nominees to be Kay Tuberville and former U.S. senator Doug Jones, mirroring their 2020 Senate face‑off in which Tuberville won the seat. "If both candidates make it through the primary, I see a 60% to 40% margin for Tuberville," Flowers said, citing the historical advantage the GOP enjoys in statewide Alabama races.

Residency dispute could force legal battle over Tuberville's eligibility

Questions have surfaced about whether Tuberville has lived in Alabama long enough to qualify for governor, given his secondary home in Florida. Flowers called the issue "legitimate" and predicted that the Jones campaign will file a lawsuit after the primaries to subpoena Tuberville’s records and verify his primary residence .

Democratic anger over redistricting may boost turnout but not enough

Alabama Democrats are furious about recent congressional district changes that threaten to unseat Rep. Shomari Figures by making his district more Republican . Flowers believes this discontent could lift Jones’s support from about 40% to roughly 42%, but he doubts it will close the gap needed for a victory.

Flowers predicts a 60‑40 split in the general election

Based on current polling and historical trends, Flowers forecasts a decisive Republican win, with Tuberville capturing 60% of the vote. He cautions that any surprise surge in Democratic turnout would have to be substantial to alter that projection.

Will the Jones campaign actually sue over Tuberville's residency?

While Flowers expects a lawsuit, he notes that the Jones campaign has not yet confirmed its legal strategy. The outcome of any court ruling could reshape the race, especially if it forces Tuberville to defend his eligibility in a high‑profile hearing.