Recent polling from Abacus Data reveals that 68% of Alberta voters intend to support staying in Canada during the October 19 referendum. This represents a notable increase from the 64% support recorded in September, as undecided voters appear to be shitfing toward the status quo.
A majority across Edmonton, Calgary, and rural Alberta
The growing preference for remaining in Canada is not limited to the province's major urban centers. According to the Abacus Data report, support for the "remain" position has broadened geographically to include areas that were previously more skeptical. In Edmonton, 77% of respondents favor staying in Canada, while 75% in Calgary share that sentiment.
Even in rural Alberta,where the desire to begin the legal process for separation has historically been strongest, a majority now supports remaining in the federation. The survey found that 57% of rural voters plan to vote to stay, a significant shift from September when rural areas were the only region without a majority for the "remain" side. This trend suggests that the movement toward staying in Canada is gaining traction even in the province's more conservative heartlands.
The deep divide within Premier Danielle Smith's UCP
While the provincial trend leans toward remaining in Canada, the political landscape remains fractured along party lines. the survey highlights a significant split among supporters of Premier Danielle Smith's United Conservative Party (UCP). Among currnt UCP members, 52% said they would vote to begin the legal process for a future separation referendum,while 44% would vote to remain in Canada.
This internal tension stands in stark contrast to the provincial NDP, where 93% of supporters indicated they would vote to remain in Canada. As reported by Abacus Data, the vast majority of those who favor starting the separation process—77%—are currently aligned with the UCP, making the party's internal consensus a critical factor in the referendum's ouctome .
Why only 32% of separation supporters actually want independence
The push to begin the legal process for a future referendum does not necessarily equate to a desire for full secession. When asked about their motivations,only 32% of those supporting the second option identified outright independence as their primary goal. The motivations for this group are more nuanced and varied than a simple exit from the country.
For instance, 23% of these respondents stated they want Alberta to negotiate a more favorable deal within the Canadian framework, while 19% view the vote as a way to send a message to Ottawa. Another 22% believe that Albertans deserve a direct democratic say on the mattter. Robson Fletcher, a strategist with Abacus Data, noted that these motivations range from a sense of democratic necessity to simple frustration with the federal government.
Who are the 7% of undecided Albertans?
Despite the clear trends, several questions remain unanswered as the October 19 deadline approaches. The Abacus Data report does not specify which individual voters changed their minds between September and October, leaving it unclear if the shift was driven by specific political messaging or shifting economic concerns. furthermore, while the "remain" camp is growing, the poll does not clarify how the 7% of undecided voters will ultimately break, or if the 18% of voters who support independence directly will move the needle on the legal process question.
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