Alberta’s government has commissioned the University of Calgary to produce a detailed estimate of the economic and administrative costs of secession, a move tied to a province‑wide referendum scheduled for October 19. Finance Minister Jason Nixon’s office says the study, overseen by a five‑member expert panel,could cost up to $1.5 million.

University of Calgary tasked with $1.5 million separatist cost analysis

The province announced Friday that the University of Calgary’s School of Public Policy will lead the research, with a deadline set for the end of summer.. According to press secretary Juliana Rodriguez, the $1.5 million budget covers both the university’s work and the advisory panel’s review . The study will assume that Alberta’s separation is legally feasible and will calculate the expenses of independently delivering services now provided by the federal government, such as passports, aviation regulation, health benefits for First Nations, and RCMP policing.

Expert panel chaired by Jack Mintz brings partisan mix

The advisory panel is chaired by economist Jack Mintz, a longtime adviser to Alberta’s conservative governments. Its members include former Saskatchewan NDP finance minister Janice MacKinnon,former Alberta Progressive Conservative finance minister Ted Morton—known for the 2001 “Firewall Letter”—as well as Business Council of Alberta president Adam Legge and Cenovus Energy board chair Alex Pourbaix. The province says this blend of perspectives will ensure Albertans receive a balanced set of facts.

Premier Danielle Smith’s $400 billion startup estimate contrasts with separatist $5.7 billion claim

Premier Danielle Smith has previously warned that secession could cost up to $400 billion in startup expenses, covering Alberta’s share of national debt, NATO commitments, a new military, and other obligations, plus an ongoing $50 billion annual bill. by contrast, some separatist groups argue the total startup cost could be as low as $5.7 billion.. The new study aims to replace these wildly divergent figures with a data‑driven assessment.

Critics call the timing and expense “premature”

NDP leader Naheed Nenshi slammed the initiative as an unnecessary expense that benefits Premier Smith’s inner circle, noting the analysis is being launched only four months before the referendum.. He argues that a study of this magnitude should have begun earlier, given the long‑standing nature of the separation debate.

What remains unclear about the methodology and independence

While the report will be produced independently of direct goverment influence, the exact composition of the research team and the weight given to external expert input have not been disclosed. Additionally, it is unknown how the panel’s reflections will be integrated into the final public presentation, leaving observers to wonder whether the $1.5 million investment will yield a truly impartial verdict.