On Monday, Ethiopian voters lined up in Addis Ababa to cast ballots for more than 500 seats in the House of Representatives , a contest that is widely expected to hand a third term to Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s Prosperity Party. The day began with a heavy military presence and long queeues, while observers urged a peaceful process in the country’s second‑largest population and African Union headquarters.

Prosperity Party’s Majority Playbook: 500 Seats, 130 Million People

According to the Associated Press, about 50 million citizens are registered to vote out of Ethiopia’s 130 million population. The Prosperity Party is projected to win a majority of the 500 seats, which would allow Abiy Ahmed to remain prime minister for another term. The AP report notes that the party’s success hinges on securing a simple majority in the House, which then elects the prime minister.

Military Presence and the Question of a Level Playing Field

The AP coverage highlighted a “heavy milittary presence” in Addis Ababa as polls opened. Opposition parties have raised concerns that such a backdrop, coupled with reports of human rights abuses, creates an uneven electoral environment.. Human rights defender Noah Yesuf described the election as “illegitimate from the beginning,” arguing that fairness requires a level playing field and a conducive environment for free participation.

Voter Apathy and the Mixed Record of the Government

Senait Dereje, a 37‑year‑old shopkeeper, said she registered to vote because she believes her ballot matters, even as many friends have given up on voting. the AP report notes that voter apathy stems from citizens feeling let down by politicians, yet some voters see the election as a referendum on the government’s mixed record, including national reconciliation efforts in conflict zones like Tigray, Oromia, and Amhara.

Opposition’s Call for Campaign Freedom Amid Shrinking Political Space

Opposition paarties have accused the government of restricting their ability to campaign and persuade voters. The AP article reports that these parties are concerned about a shrinking political space, which they say undermines the democratic process. The extent to which these restrictions affected voter turnout remains unclear.

What’s Still Unknown: The Impact of Military Oversight on Results

While the AP report documents the presence of security forces, it does not explain how this might influence voting behavior or the integrity of the count. Additionally, the AP does not provide independent verification of the reported voter registration numbers or the exact nature of the alleged human rights abuses. finally, the AP has yet to report on any concrete measures taken to ensure a fair vote or to address opposition complaints.