Iran has shifted its strategic focus toward the Strait of Hormuz, using the threat of disruption to exert economic pressure rather than outright blockade, according to an analysis by Middle East security analyst Shukriya Bradost. The waterway, through which nearly one-fifth of the world's traded oil passes, has become a long-term instrument of influence for Tehran, as indicated by Iranian officials. This approach exploits maritime uncertainty to impact global energy markets, insurance premiums, and shipping costs without requiring military escalation.

Nearly one-fifth of global oil: Why the Strait of Hormuz is Iran's preferred pressure point

According to Bradost's analysis,the Strait of Hormuz carries nearly one-fifth of the planet's traded oil, giving Iran what she calls a "considerable geopolitical influence." The mere possibility of disruption can instantly affect oil prices,shipping costs, insurance premiums, and political decisions worldwide. Iranian officials have recently indicated that they view Hormuz not merely as a wartime chokepoint but as a long-term instrument of influence, the report says.

This represents a significant shift in Tehran's approach. Instead of relying solely on its nuclear program, Iran now sees the strait as a central lever for projecting economic pressure on global markets. The value lies not in permanently halting commerce but in imposing economic costs and creating sustained uncertainty, Bradost argues.

The Red Sea preview: How Houthi drones and missiles reshaped shipping risk

Bradost points to attacks by Iranian-backed Houthis in the Red Sea as a demonstration of how relatively inexpensive drones and missiles could disrupt global shipping routes, raise insurance costs, and force rerouting. These attacks showed that the significance lies in imposing sustained costs and uncertainty, not in permanently halting commerce, according to her analysis.

Beyond direct attacks, the analysis notes that cyber operations, maritime harassment, sabotage, proxy actions, and threats against energy infrastructure all shape the behavior of shipping companies, insurers, investors, and governments.. A shipping company's entry decision, an insurer's premium calculation, or a trader's supply assessment all respond to perceived risk — and these decisions generate economic consequences even if tankers continue to transit.

Asymmetric tactics extended to sea: From proxy forces to coastal harassment

For decades, Iran relied on an asymmetric model involving missiles, drones, proxy forces, and covert networks.. Bradost's analysis says this approach has now been extended into the maritime domain. Instead of matching U.S. naval power ship-for-ship, Iran has developed methods that exploit uncertainty, geography, and economic vulnerability.

The core challenge, as the analysis frames it, is that as long as Iran retains the capability to threaten maritime commerce and energy infrastructure, the economic pressure persists. Hormuz has become more than a chokepoint; it is central to Iran's strategy of projecting economic pressure without formally closing the strait.

The unanswered question: Will Iran ever actually close the strait?

Bradost's analysis underscores that the future of Hormuz concerns leverage, uncertainty, and the ability to influence international economic behavior without formally closing the strait. The open question remains: under what conditions would Iran escalate from harassment to a full blockade? Iranian officials have siganled a long-term view, but no clear red lines have been drawn in public.

What is clear , according to the analysis, is that the threat itself — sustained and credible — is the weapon. The strait's status as a chokepoint ensures that even the perception of risk can reshape global energy markets, making Hormuz Iran's most effective asymmetric asset.