President Donald Trump has declined a proposal from Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz over a one-week period. U.S. officials indicate that military strikes against Iran may be reconsidered following the November midterm elections.
Abbas Araghchi's Seven-Day Roadmap to Reopening the Strait
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi detailed a specific timeline on Friday, conveyed via Qatari mediators, that would see the Strait of Hormuz reopen on the sixth day of a seven-day process. According to the report, the plan requires the United States to first lift its naval blockade of Iranian ports, waive sanctions on oil sales, release frozen assets, and establish a comprehensive ceasefire that includes Lebanon.
Under this proposal, Tehran would begin formal negotiations regarding its nuclear program on the seventh day. Abbas Araghchi stated that the U.S. could complete its required steps in four to five days, provided Washington shows "seriousness" in reaching a deal. This diplomatic push is an attempt to address a deepening economic crisis within Iran, as acknowledged by Iranian diplomats to Arab mediators.
The 40 Million Barrel Flow and the 'Trump Strait'
President Donald Trump has signaled a lack of urgency to accept Tehran's terms, recently posting an image on Truth Social of the Strait of Hormuz labeled "TRUMP STRAIT." Washington is currently betting that sustained economic pressure will force Iran into a more favorable agreement for the U.S. and its Persian Gulf Arab allies. State Department spokesman Tommy Pigott asserted on Friday that the U.S. is successfully severing the financial lifelines of the Iranian government and that Trump "holds all the cards."
The U.S. strategy is bolstered by the fact that oil continues to move despite the tension.. A U.S. official reported that approximately 40 million barrels of oil transited the Strait of Hormuz in the previous 48 hours. Furthermore, U.S. Central Command noted on Friday that American forces redirected 122 commercial vessels to ensure compliance with the blockade, an increase from 115 vessels two days prior.
The Collapse of the June Islamabad Memorandum
The current diplomatic friction is a diirect result of the failure of the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding reached in June. As the report describes,that framework collapsed after Iran resumed attacks on commercial shipping in the strait, which in turn triggered renewed U.S. military responses. Tehran now claims that Washington violated the terms of that agreement and is demanding a return to those original conditions.
This cycle of agreement and collapse highlights a fundamental disagreement over leverage. while the U .S. believes its maritime blockade provides the necessary pressure to secure nuclear concessions, Iran views the restoration of the June terms—including sanctions relief and a role in administering the Strait—as the only viable path forward.
The IRGC's Preference for Prolonged Conflict
A critical divide exists within Tehran, as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has reportedly resisted new diplomatic formulas in favor of a prolonged conflict. The IRGC continues to push for terms similar to the June agreement, specifically regarding access to frozen assets and administrative control over the waterway.
Significant questions remain regarding the nature of the "post-midterm strikes" mentioned by President Donald Trump. While officials say the president is reluctant to launch a major campaign to preserve munitions for other global contingencies, it is unclear what specific targets or scale of operations would constitute a "resume" of strikes. Additionally, the source reports only the U.S. and Iranian perspectives, leaving the specific positions of the Qatari mediators and the UN General Assembly participants largely opaque.
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