Vietnamese President To Lam arrived in Ottawa on Thursday for a high-stakes state visit with Prime Minister Mark Carney. The visit aims to strengthen diplomatic and economic ties as both nations seek to navigate the increasing pressures of American and Chinese economic influence.
A $20 billion trade relationship to fortify
The economic foundation for this visit is substatial, as Vietnam currently serves as Canada's largest trading partner in Southeast Asia. According to the report, two-way merchandise trade between the two nations exceeded $20 billion last year. This exchange is driven by Canadian exports of food, metals, and fertilizers, while Vietnam provides essential goods including electronics, clothing, furniture, and shoes.
This massive trade volume provides a buffer for both economies as they seek to build resilience. As the source reports, the two countries have operated under a cooperation agreement since 2017, which covers a wide range of sectors including defense, academia, investment, and economic development. Both nations are looking to leverage this existing framework to protect themselves from the volatility of superpower competition.
Carney’s pattern of middle-power outreach
Prime Minister Mark Carney is actively pursuing a strategy to engage with "middle powers" to diversify Canada's diplomatic and trade partnerships. this movement is part of a broader effort to reduce reliance on traditional allies and mitigate the risks of economic coercion from larger global actors. Vina Nadjibulla of the Centre for Strategic Statecraft noted that Vietnam’s current orientation—seeking autonomy and agency—closely mirrors Canada's own strategic goals.
This visit by President To Lam follows a recent trend of high-level diplomatic engagement in Ottawa. The report notes that Canada has recently hosted leaders from the Philippines and Norway, and Prime Minister Carney has confirmed that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is scheduled to visit in December. This pattern suggests a concerted shift in Canadian foreign policy toward a more multipolar engagement strategy.
Elevating the 2017 agreement to a strategic partnership
A primary objective of the current discussions is to upgrade the existing 2017 bilateral agreement into a formal strategic partnership. Such an elevation would signify deeper, more aligned cooperation on long-term objectives, potentially including joint efforts in maritime security and the stabilization of global supply chains. There is also potential for increased Canadian energy exports to the Vietnamese market.
Vietnam's position within regional trade blocs also offers significant strategic value to Canada. As a member of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), Vietnam is a central player in the free-trade negotiations Canada is currently conducting. Furthermore, Vietnam holds the rotating chairmanship of the CPTPP, a trade bloc that includes Canada, Japan, and Australia, and which emphasizes rules-based commerce and workers' rights.
The unresolved question of forced labor in Vietnamese exports
Despite the growing economic alignment, significant questions remain regarding the integrity of certain supply chains. Specifically, there are unverified concerns regarding whether certain products, such as running shoes produced in Vietnam, may be linked to forced labor or cotton derived from the Xinjiang region of China. while Vietnam has stated it takes these concerns seriously, the issue remains a potential point of friction.
The report notes that Canada's former corporate ombudsperson has raised these specific concerns, highlighting a tension between trade expansion and ethical oversight. As Canada and Vietnam move toward a deeper partnership, the ability to verify the absence of forced labor in manufacturing will likely be a critical test for the relationship's long-term stability.
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