Oil prices surged more than 2% on Monday as fresh US‑Iran military strikes and Israel’s push into southern Lebanon rattled markets, eroding hopes for a ceasefire extension and raising supply concerns. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose $2.29, or 2.62%, to $89.65 per barrel by 0436 GMT, while Brent crude futures gained $2.05, or 2.25%, to $93.17 per barrel.

US‑Iran Strikes Push WTI and Brent Past $90 a Barrel

According to the source, the Pentagon announced that U.S. forces conducted self‑defence strikes on Iranian radar and drone control sites in Iran’s Goruk and Qeshm Island. In retaliation, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said its aerospace force targeted an air base used in what it called a U.S . attack on a telecoms tower on Sirik Island. The escalation pushed WTI above $90 a barrel for the first time since early April.

Israel’s Advance into Lebanon Intensifies Hezbollah‑Iran Tensions

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered troops to push further into Lebanon to confront Hezbollah after a series of cross‑border attacks. the fighitng has raised the stakes for any diplomatic resolution, with Iran insisting that any ceasefire deal must include Hezbollah. The source notes that the U.S. has proposed a gradual de‑escalation plan under which Hezbollah would first halt attacks on Israel in exchange for Israel refraining from escalation in Beirut.

Strait of Hormuz Closure Could Push Prices Higher

Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz since the conflict began in February, and there are reports of mines being laid in the waterway. An Axios reporter noted that Iran dropped additional mines earlier in the week, shortly after U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth warned that such actions would violate the ceasefire. The strait handles about one‑fifth of the world’s oil and gas flows, and its prolonged closure could push prices higher, according to IG analyst Tony Sycamore.

China’s Weak Factory Data Adds to Demand‑Side Uncertainty

The source reports that weak economic data from China over the weekend showed factory activity stalling for the second consecutive month, driven by falling exports and rising costs. Goldman Sachs warned that weak oil demand in China and Europe poses a major downside risk to its fourth‑quarter forecasts of $90 per barrel for Brent and $83 for WTI, though it acknowledged that supply disruptions from the Middle East could still drive prices up.

Who Is the Unnamed Buyer in the Strait of Hormuz?

The source does not identify any specific buyer or buyer group that may be seeking to secure alternative shipping routes or storage options amid the heightened risk in the Strait of Hormuz. The lack of transparency raises questions about who might be positioning themselves to benefit from a prolonged closure.