Shipowners are watching warily for a US-Iran peace deal that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz, even as a growing stream of oil sneaks out of the waterway under cover of darkness. According to Bloomberg, approximately 127 oil tankers are currently inside the Persian Gulf, though Signal Maritime data cautions the count is hard to verify. the global energy market, which was pitched into turmoil when the waterway effectively closed at the start of the war, has since reoriented, and prices have already retreated heavily from their highs.

127 Tankers and a Count That Can't Be Trusted

The exact number of vessels inside the Persian Gulf remains elusive, but Signal Maritime's estimate of 127 oil tankers offers a rough baseline. Bloomberg reports that dozens more have positioned themselves near the strait, ready to exploit a surge in demand if traffic resumes.. The uncertainty over the count reflects a broader opacity: many tankers now sail with transponders switched off, making dark flows the new normal.

The 7 Million Barrel-a-Day Gap

Even without a formal reopening, significant volumes are crossing the strait. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said about 7 million barrels a day are making their way through the Gulf, a figure that JPMorgan Chase pegs at just over 5 million and one major commodity trader told a Paris meeting of analysts puts at roughly 4 million. Before the war, the strait typically handled about 20 million barrels of crude oil and fuel products, according to the source. The gap between official pre-war volumes and current dark flows is where the real story lies.

A False Start Two Months Ago

Shipowners have reason to be cautious. Bloomberg notes that a resolution has seemed close in the past,including two months ago when both sides declared the strait open , only for Iran to fire on vessels less than 24 hours later. Several shipowners told the repport they would take a wait-and-see approach, citing recent crew deaths from US strikes as a reminder of the risks. The pattern suggests that any announcement from the White House should be treated with skepticism until ships actually pass without incident .

Who Controls the Strait After a Deal?

The memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran will be open to interpretation, as Bloomberg reported. While President Trump said ships will have free passage, Iranian media has suggested Tehran will still retain a degree of control. This ambiguity leaves shipowners guessing: will it be a full reopening or a limited corridor? The rush for the exit, as some owners predict, could create extreme traffic levels and raise the risk of crashes and ships running aground, industry bodies have warned.