Meteorologists from the National Hurricane Center and AccuWeather are monitoring a weak disturbance near Bermuda that shows little sign of immediate intensification. As of mid-September, atmospheric conditions suggest the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season could potentially conclude without any hurricanes forming.
Chasing the ghosts of 1907 and 1914
The current 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is trending toward a significant statistical anomaly. According to the report, the season could potentially end without a single hurricane, a phenomenon that has only occurred twice in modern history, specifically in 1907 and 1914. While the satellite era has made it much easier for meteorologists to confirm the absence of storms, the possibility of a zero-hurricane season remains a rare meteorological event.
This quiet period is largely attributed to environmental inhibitors currently dominating the basin. The National Hurricane Center has identified a persistent trough in the eastern Atlantic, which, combined with cooler sea surface temperatures, is preventing tropical systems from gaining the organization necessary to strengthen.
The orange-hatched zone east of Bermuda
On September 16, the National Hurricane Center's tropical outlook map highlighted a specific area of concern east of Bermuda. This disturbance is currently marked as an orange-hatched zone, which singifies a medium potentiial for development. Although the system lacks a closed surface circulation and has shown signs of disorganization, forecasters noted it could evolve into a tropical system within a 48-hour window.
Jamie Rhome, the deputy director of the National Hurricane Center, explained that the organization continuously monitors these disturbances and updates its maps as new data arrives. Despite the "low chance" designation for the week ahead, the proximity of this feature to land keeps it under close watch by regional authorities.
El Niño and the jet stream's impact on the Gulf Coast
While the Atlantic remains relatively calm,AccuWeather experts are looking toward the northern Gulf of Mexico for potential shifts. AccuWeather's hurricane expert Alex DaSilva warned that a dip in the jet stream along the U.S. East Coast might push an upper-air disturbance toward the Gulf Coast later this weekend.
The strengthening El Niño phenomenon is a primary driver of this suppressed activity. As reported by the source, DaSilva noted that increased wind shear linked to El Niño will likely persist through the fall, creating a hostile environment for organized tropical storms. Additionally, AccuWeather's chief meteorologist Bernie Raynor pointed to a "swirly feature" in the middle atmosphere that could become a subtropical system if it reaches favorable ocean temperatures.
Will the Lesser Antilles wave find organization?
Despite the general trend toward a quiet season, several specific atmospheric features remain unverified. Meteorologists are currently tracking an East Atlantic tropical wave moving across the Lesser Antilles at 61°W and 20°N, but it has yet to show signs of cyclonic organization.
It remains unclear whether this wave will remain a disorganized cluster of showers or if a sudden shift in moisture patterns could trigger development. Furthermore, while the current outlook is quiet, the exact timing of when the El Niño-driven wind shear might fluctuate remains a critical unknown for those monitoring the Gulf Coast.
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