Scientists at the Technical University of Munich have found that land subsidence is significantly accelerating the impact of rising oceans. this phenomenon is causing urban coastal areas to experience sea-level increases at triple the global average rate.

Jakarta’s 42-millimeter annual sink rate

Jakarta, Indonesia, represents the most extreme example of this dual threat. According to research from the Technical University of Munich, the megacity is subsiding at a rate of 13.7 millimeters per year, placing its 42 million residents in significant danger. In some specific parts of the city, the ground is dropping by as much as 42 millimeters annually.

The scale of the crisis in Jakarta is compounded by the fact that roughly 40 percent of the city already sits below sea level. If current trends continue, experts warn that nearly half of the Indonesian capital could become uninhabitable by the year 2050.

Groundwater extraction and the weight of heavy buildings

The Technical University of Munich study identifies human activity as a primary driver of this sinking phenomenon. Dr. Julius Oelsmann and his colleagues found that the excessive extraction of groundwater and oil removes the underground resources that previously stabilized the Earth's surface . This depletion causes the land to compact and settle.

Beyond resource extraction, the physical mass of modern urban environments contributes to the problem. As cities grow taller and more densely packed with heavy buildings, the weight of the infrastructure itself compresses the ground. This creates a feedback loop where urban growth directly accelerates the rate at which a city slips toward the ocean.

A global map of 10-millimeter hotspots

While Jakarta is a prominent example, the Technical University of Munich report highlights several other high-risk zones. in countries like Thailand, Bangladesh, Nigeria, Egypt, China, and Indonesia, the ocean is effectively rising by seven to 10 millimeters every year due to the combination of sea-level rise and land subsidence.

Specific urban centers are seeing even more dramatic shifts. As Dr. julius Oelsmann reported, Tianjin, China, is subsiding at 13.5 millimeters per year, affecting its 13.8 million residents. Other major cities facing well-above-average rates include Bangkok at 8.5 millimeters, Lagos at 6.7 millimeters, and Alexandria at 4 millimeters per year.

The challenge of Jakarta's uneven sinking rates

One of the most complex challenges identified in the study is that subsidence does not occur uniformly across a single metropolitan area. In Jakarta, for instance, while some neighborhoods are plummeting toward the sea, other regions are actually experiencing uplift. This creates a fragmented landscape of risk that complicates urban planning and emergency response.

This unevenness leaves several critical questions unanswered for local governments. How can a city implement a unified sea wall or drainage system when different streets are moving at different rates? Furthermore, the report does not specify which specific regulatory interventions in cities like Tianjin or Lagos would most effectively halt the extraction of groundwater to stabilize the soil.