May 2026 has been recorded as the second-warmest May globally since records began. Data from the Copernicus Climate Change Service indicates that surging sea surface temperatures are precursors to a potentially massive El Niño event.

The 15.81°C Global Average and the Super El Niño Threat

According to the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), the average global temperature in May 2026 reached 15.81°C, which sits 0.55°C above the average recorded between 1991 and 2020. This atmospheric heat is mirrored in the oceans, where sea surface temperatures averaged 20.90°C, missing the 2024 record by a mere 0.03°C.

These metrics suggest the emergence of a "Super El Niño," a rare and intense climate phenomenon. If this event fully materializes, it could potentially drive global average temperatures up by as much as 3°C this summer, creating a volatile environment of extreme heat and erratic rainfall across the planet.

From UK Heatwaves to Flooding in Bulgaria and Moldova

The volatility of May 2026 was most evident in Europe, where the region swung from cool weather to one of its most intense early-year heatwaves. Samantha Burgess, the Strategic Lead for Climate at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), noted that this trend of exceptional warmth is becoming a new normal for the continent.

During the latter half of May, temperature records were shattered in France, Ireland, Portugal, and the United Kingdom. However,the weather was not uniformly hot; while central and western Europe were drier than usual, the Black Sea region, Finland, northern Scandinavia, Moldova, Bulgaria, and Turkey experienced above-average rainfall and significant flooding.

The WMO's 90% Certainty of a Persistent El Niño

The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has issued stark projections regarding the tropical Pacific Ocean . As reported by the World Meteorological Organisation, there is an 80% likelihood of El Niño developing between June and August 2026, with a 90% probability that the condition will persist through at least November.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres has echoed this sentiment, stating that the arrival of El Niño is 90% certain. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo warned that this event could be one of the strongest ever recorded,potentially surpassing the 2023-24 El Niño,which was among the five most powerful on record and contributed to the record-breaking heat of 2024.

Projected Heat Spikes Across North America and the Caribbean

The most severe temperature anomalies are forecast to hit southern and western North America, the Caribbean, Central America, North Africa, Europe, and large portions of Asia. In the Southern Hemisphere, the World Meteorological Organisation expects northern South America and southern Africa to endure widespread above-normal temperatures.

These spikes will not occur in a vacuum; they will be superimposed on the long-term warming trend caused by human activities. this compounding effect increases the risk of catastrophic weather events in tropical regions, including the Maritime Continent, Southeast Asia, and equatorial Africa.

Will Food Security Hold Against a 3°C Summer Spike?

While the World Meteorological Organisation and the United Nations have sounded the alarm, several critical details remain unverified. The source reports that governments must plan for impacts on food security and infrastructure, but it does not specify which nations have active mitigation plans or which specific crops are most at risk durnig this projected 3°C spike.

Furthermore, the report focuses heavily on the forecasts of the WMO and Copernicus, leaving it unclear if other major meteorological agencies, such as those in the U.S. or China, have reached the same 90% certainty regarding the "Super" status of this El Niño.