A record-tying El Niño weather pattern is currently impacting global weather, with sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific reaching critical levels. Climatologist Zeke Hausfather reports that the current anomaly has matched the intensity of the 2015-2016 event.
A 3.07°C tie with the 2015-2016 record
Climatologist Zeke Hausfather, a senior scientist at Berkeley Earth and a co-author of United Nations climate reports, has identified that the current sea surface temperature anomaly in the Nino 3.4 region has reached 3.07°C. This specific figure ties the intensity of the massive 2015-2016 El Niño event. According to the report, these findings are derived from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) satellite and buoy data.
This data tracks temperature fluctuations within the "Nino 3.4 region," an imaginary box in the Pacific Ocean, comparing daily temperatures against a 30-year average. Hausfather noted that September is very likely to see the highest monthly anomalies on record, barring any unexpected shifts in the coming week.
Disrupting 5% of global trade at the Panama Canal
The drought-driven effects of this El Niño are already causing tangible economic and environmental damage across multiple continents. In Central America, the lack of rainfall is resulting in the death of vital crops and livestock. More critically, the Panama Canal is facing severe water shortages that threaten its ability to function. The waterway relies on reservoir water to power the locks that lift and lower ships; without it, authorities have been forced to slash traffic.
Given that 5% of global trade passes through the Panama Canal, these restrictions pose a significant threat to international supply chains. Simultaneously, in Indonesia, the El Niño-induced drought is fueling devastating wildfires across the vast archipelago, as reported by AFP.
The "striking amplification" found in coral skeletons
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a natural cycle that occurs in the tropical Pacific roughly every five years. The cycle begins when the trade winds , which typicaally blow from east to west, temporarily ease up. This allows warm water that usually accumulates in the western Pacific to slide back toward the east and rise to the surface. As AFP reported, this shift causes ripple effects through the global atmosphere, leading to hotter, drier conditions in some regions and wetter, cooler conditions in others.
While the cycle is natural,human-caused climate change may be exacerbating the consequences. A recent study based on coral skeletons found a "striking amplification" of El Niño patterns over the last 40 years compared to the pre-industrial period.. Furthermore, because a warmer atmosphere holds more moisture, El Niño-linked rains can turn into more extreme weather events.
Will the new RONI metric eventually break records?
While the current event is a record-tying one on traditional metrics, there is ongoing debate regarding how we measure these shifts. NOAA has transitioned to a newer method called the Relative Oceanic Nino Index (RONI), which measures warming in the Nino 3.4 region against the warming of the entire tropical belt. This change aims to better account for the general heating of the oceans caused by climate change. On this specific RONI metric, the current El Niño is not yet at record levels, though scientists expect it will eventually break them.
However, several scientific questions remain unanswered. The source notes that scientists are not in full agreement on whether climate change is directly intensifying the El Niño cycles themselves, or if it is simply amplifying their existing effects. Additionally, the full extent of the long-term impact of the current 3.07°C anomaly on global food security remains to be seen.
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