Researchers led by Oxford University's Dr. Thomas Monahan warn of a massive increase in coastal flooding risks for the 2026-27 El Niño season. The study suggests that the convergence of warming waters and lunar gravitational cycles could create extreme sea-level surges across the Americas.
The 1.3-foot thermal expansion threat in the Eastern Pacific
The warming of surface waters is driving a significant rise in sea levels across the Pacific Ocean. According to the preprint study led by Dr. thomas Monahan of Oxford University, this "Super" El Niño is expected to raise levels in the eastern Pacific by approximately 1.3 feet (40 centimeters), affecting coastlines stretchiing from Alaska down to Chile.
This rise is primarily driven by thermal expansion, a process where water expands as it absorbs more heat. This phenomenon is expected to create a baseline of higher water levels that makes any additional storm activity significantly more dangerous for coastal infrastructure.
How the Moon's 18-year cycle amplifies surge probability tenfold
The Moon's 18-year lunar nodal cycle is currently amplifying tides at the same time that oceanic heat is intensifying. The research, which involved collaborators from the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution and the University of Central Florida, highlights a rare synergy between these two forces.
This combination is predicted to increase the probability of an extreme sea-level surge tenfold during the 2026-27 season. The study indicates that the resulting water levels could reach the 99th percentile of historically recorded events, posing a severe threat to both human settlements and local ecosystems.
Peak flooding risks during Thanksgiving and Christmas weeks
Significant storm surges are likely to coincide with peak holiday travel periods, increasing the potential for human impact. The Monahan team identfiies the weeks of Thanksgiving and Christmas as high-risk windows when population density along coastal regions is at its highest.
This timing presents a unique challenge for emergency management, as the surge could impact large numbers of travelers and residents during a period of high mobility.. The study suggests that the intersection of extreme weather and high human activity could turn manageable flooding into a major humanitarian concern.
Uncertainties surrounding the 'El Niño Flood Watch' tool
The "El Niño Flood Watch" online tool has been introduced by researchers to provide local communities with predictive insights into potential flooding. however, because the study is currently a preprint pending peer review, several critical variables remain unverified.
It is not yet certain how much the predicted changes in the jet stream will influence the stability of the U.S. power grid or the exact scale of flooding within the Amazon basin. furthermore, while the tool offers projections,it is not an official government warning system, leaving a gap in authoritative communication for at-risk residents.
Moving beyond the 1877-78 El Niño baseline
Modern sea-level risks far exceed those seen during the 1877-78 El Niño season due to the added layer of anthropogenic sea-level rise. The Monahan team notes that while historical events provide a benchmark, the current rate of sea-level rise is not merely linear and may accelerate alongside storm severity.
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