Pixar’s upcomng "Toy Story 5" is slated to open from June 19‑21, 2026, with an early estimate of $130 million to $160 million in domestic ticket sales, according to Box Office Pro. If the forecast holds, the film could eclipse the $131 million opening of "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" and become the highest‑grossing release of the year.

Box Office Pro’s $130‑$160 million opening weekend forecast

The prediction, released by Box Office Pro, places the sequel’s three‑day domestic debut between $130 million and $160 million,a range that would outpace every other scheduled 2026 release. The outlet notes that Pixar’s four‑film "Toy Story" series has already amassed nearly $2.9 billion worldwide, suggesting the franchise’s brand power remains a strong draw.

Projected $465‑$602 million domestic run could topple the Mario record

Beyond the opening weekend, analysts expect the movie to finish its U.S. and Canada theatrical run with $465 million to $602 million, according to the same Box Office Pro report. that would surpass "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie"’s $424 million total, setting a new benchmark for the calendar year.

Global $983 million target mirrors previous billion‑dollar successes

To claim the title of 2026’s highest‑grossing film worldwide, "Toy Story 5" would need to exceed $983 million globally.. The last two entries in the series each crossed the $1 billion mark, and rising ticket prices since 2019 make the target appear attainable, the report adds.

Andrew Stanton’s directorial debut adds fresh creative weight

While Andrew Stanton has written for three earlier "Toy Story" installments and directed hits like "Wall‑E" and "Finding Nemo," this will be his first time at the helm of a "Toy Story" sequel. Box Office Pro highlights his pedigree as a factor that could boost audience confidence and box‑office performance.

June competition: How "Masters of the Universe" and "Supergirl" stack up

"Toy Story 5" will share the summer slate with titles such as "Masters of the Universe" (June 5) and "Disclosure Day" (June 12), but its main rivals are the family‑friendly "Supergirl" (June 26) and the animated sequel "Minions & Monsters" (July 1). The report suggests these films will need to carve out niche audiences to avoid being eclipsed by Pixar’s blockbuster.

Who’s voicing Woody, Buzz and the new cast?

Tom Hanks returns as Woody and Tim Allen as Buzz Lightyear, while the sequel adds Keanu Reeves, Bad Bunny and Conan O’Brien to the voice roster. The storyline tackles children’s screen addiction, a timely theme that could resonate with parents and broaden the film’s appeal.

What remains uncertain about the sequel’s financial outlook?

Box Office Pro has not disclosed the production budget , though previous "Toy Story" entries each cost Disney roughly $200 million. Additionally, the impact of the 2022 "Lightyear" flop—$226 million worldwide on a $200 million budget—on audience perception remains uncear.