Psychological thriller Obsession, produced by Focus Features, continues to defy box office expectations by increasing its domestic earnings for three consecutive weekends — a feat not seen since Steven Spielberg's E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial in 1982. As of its third weekend, the film grossed $26.4 million, up from $23.9 million in its second weekend and $17.1 million in its opening weekend. Heading into its fourth weekend (June 5-7), the film is projected to earn $20.9 million — a dip from recent weeks but still above its debut, according to industry tracking data cited by the report.

The $20.9 million fourth weekend that beats its own opening

The projected $20.9 million for the fourth weekend, while lower than the previous two, would still surpass the film's opening weekend haul of $17.1 million. This sustained performance is all the more striking given competition from three new releases: Scary Movie reboot ($50.4 million forecast), Masters of the Universe ($29.6 million), and The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act ($12 million). According to the source, Obsession is expected to hold its ground even as other holdovers like A24's Backrooms and Star Wars: The Mandalorian & Grogu face steep declines of 67% and 55% respectively.

Why box office analysts have given up on predictions

The film's trajectory has left even seasoned observers baffled. As box office analysis site BoxOfficeTheory admitted, "at this point, everyone's guess is as good as the next." The report notes that predictions for Obsession have been notoriously unreliable throughout its run. This uncertainty underscores a broader industry reckoning:the old models for forecasting theatrical performance may no longer apply in a post-pandemic market where word-of-mouth and social media buzz can override traditional opening-weekend gravity.

Universal's 45-day theatrical window bet

In a sign of the film's blockbuster status,Universal Pictures has removed Obsession from its digital release calendar and extended its theatrical window to 45 days — a rare move typically reserved for major franchise films. According to the source, this means the film will likely debut on Peacock in early July rather than arriving on streaming sooner. The decision reflects a calculated gamble: keeping the movie exclusively in theaters longer maximizes box office revenue while potentially sacrificing early streaming engagement. It also signals that Universal sees Obsession as more than a flash-in-the-panic indie hit.

Indie horror's $300 million ceiling since Bruce Lee

As of June 5, Obsession has grossed $166 million worldwide and is on track to cross $200 million, which would be a first for Focus Features. If it surpasses $300 million, it will be the first film with a budget under $1 million to do so since Bruce Lee's Enter the Dragon in 1973. The report highlights that the film's success has reignited discussions about the viability of low-budget horror,with studios now scrambling to replicate its formula. The broader context: this run comes amid a shifting landscape where unconventional releases can find massive success if they resonate with audiences — a trend accelerated by the post-pandemic era.. What remains unknown is whether Obsession can sustain its momentum through the competitive summer months, and whether the sustained word-of-mouth will translate to a long tail or if the digital release window will eventually cannibalize box office. The unnamed director and Focus Features' strategy for capitalizing on this breakout also merit closer scrutiny as the film's run continues.