Commodity trader Peter Brandt has issued a long-term bullish forecast for XRP, suggesting a potential price target of $5 .40. His analysis is based on monthly candlestick data and high implied volatility figures from Coinbase Markets.
The narrowing corridor from 2018 to 2020
Peter Brandt’s bullish outlook for XRP is rooted in a macro-level analysis of monthly USDT candle data. He has identified a specific technical structure formed by a descending resistance corridor that originated near the 2018 price peak. This corridor has gradually narrowed over several years as it converged with a rising support line that emerged from the 2020 lows.
This convergence has created a "technical box" in which XRP has been trading for an extended period. According to the report, XRP recently breached the upper boundary of this structure by passing the $3.00 mark, though this move was followed by a significant pull-back.
Overcoming the $1.88 moving average hurdle
XRP is currently navigating a period of consolidation that may delay the long-term rally Brandt anticipates. The asset has recently been trading within a range of $1.20 to $1.50, struggling to maintain momentum after its recent surge.
A critical technical obstacle for the token is its 18-month moving average, which is currently positioned near $1.88.. As the report notes, XRP must recapture key support levels and trade above this moving average before it can realistically aim for the $5.40 target.
Coinbase's 8.9% implied volatility signal
Market participants are signaling an expectation for significant price movement through Coinbase Markets data. Implied volatility for XRP options is currently pricing in an expected one-standard-deviation move of approximately 8.9% through September 27.
This 8.9% figure represents the highest anticipated volatility among several major cryptocurrencies. For comparison, the data shows Solana at 8.0%, Ethereum at 6.9%, and Bitcoin at 5.0%. Furthermore, this implied movement is roughly 1.79 times the median seven-day historical change for XRP, suggesting that traders are bracing for more turbulence than usual.
The missing catalyst for the 2025 rally
While the technical and options data provide a bullish framework, several variables remain unverified. it is unclear what specific market event or news cycle will provide the necessary volume to break XRP out of its current $1.20-$1.50 consolidation range.
Additionally , the report does not clarify if the recent price correction is a standard technical retracement or a sign of waning interest compared to other ecosystems like TRON or BNB Chain.. The source also leaves it unaddressed whether the current volatility is a precursor to a breakout or merely a prelude to further sideways movement.
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