Bitcoin has started October 2026 on a high note, trading above $87,000. This positive momentum follows strong gains throughout August and September, marking a recovery from the instability of the previous year.
The 2025 trade dispute that broke a seven-year streak
The current optimism in the crypto market is tempered by the memory of October 2025, a period that shattered a long-standing seasonal trend. According to HeadTopics.com, Bitcoin had historically seen positive returns in ten of the thirteen years between 2013 and 2025, but that seven-year winning streak ended abruptly last year.
In October 2025, Bitcoin initially surged to a record high above $126,000, starting the month at approximately $119,000. However,a sudden escalation in U.S.-China trade tensions triggered a massive "risk-off" sentiment among investors. this geopolitical shock led to the largest cryptocurrency liquidation event recorded at that time, dragging the price of Bitcoin down toward $105,000 and resulting in a monthly loss of about 4%.
This event serves as a critical reminder that the phenomenon known as "Uptober" is not a guarantee of profit. The 2025 crash demonstrated that macroeconomic shocks—specifically trade wars—can easily override seasonal patterns and institutional buying pressure.
Bitcoin's climb to $87,000 after a 25% August surge
Entering the final quarter of 2026, Bitcoin is exhibiting much stronger technical momentum than it did during the same period last year. as reported by HeadTopics.com, Bitcoin has reached an eight-month high, trading above $87,000. This ascent was fueled by a significant 25% rise in August and a subsequent 9% gain throughout September.
The current rally is supported by a combination of increased liquidity and aggressive short covering.. Unlike the fragile peak of 2025, the current price action suggests a more stable transition into the bullish October window , provided that the broader economic environment remains steady.
Solana and XRP join the September rally
The bullishness of October 2026 is not limited to the primary asset. A broad-based recovery across the altcoin market suggests a healthier appetite for risk among traders. Assets including Solana, XRP, NEAR, LINK, and Zcash all posted significant gains in September, indicating that the rally is systemic rather than isolated to Bitcoin.
Ethereum has also shown resilience, breaking higher following its own rally in August. This synchronized movement across major blockchain assets typically signals a market-wide shift in sentiment, contrasting with the 2025 period where Ethereum fared worse than Bitcoin, losing between 6% and 7% during the October downturn.
Whether $4.7 billion in ETF inflows can stop a leverage crash
A central question remains regarding the actual shielding power of institutional products. In the first half of October 2025, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted approximately $4.7 billion in inflows, yet this massive capital injection failed to prevent the price from sliding toward $105,000 once the trade dispute hit.
While ETF demand remains a positive driver for Bitcoin in 2026, the market faces a new risk: leverage.. A "straight-line" acceleration in price could leave the market vulnerable to a leverage-driven correction, where a small dip triggers a cascade of forced liquidations. It remains unverified whether the current level of ETF liquidity is sufficient to absorb such a shock or if the market is simply building a bubble similar to the one seen before the 2025 crash.
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