Bitcoin is currently oscillating between $83,000 and $85,000 following a significant rally from $76,000... This period of price compression follows a recent surge that saw the cryptocurrency reach a high of $87,000.

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The 10-out-of-13 "Uptober" Bullish Streak

Bitcoin may soon benefit from a seasonal phenomenon known as "Uptober," a period characterized by historically positive price action. According to crypto analyst Ali Martinez, Bitcoin has seen gains in 10 of the last 13 Octobers. This seasonal trend is potentially bolstered by the fact that September, which is typically a bearish month for the asset, is poised to end on a bullish note, as reported by the source.

The appetite for the digital asset remains high, evidenced by significant institutional interest. the report notes that nearly $3 billion in spot ETF inflows were recorded within a mere ten-day window, signaling robust demand. This influx of capital could provide the necessary momentum to transition Bitcoin into a sustained bullish regime as the new month begins.

Axel Adler Jr.’s Sixth Bull Market Transition Since 2012

Technical indicators suggest that Bitcoin may have already entered a significant new market phase. On August 20, the Adjusted MVRV 30DMA/365DMA ratio crossed above its 365-day moving average, a technical milestone that signals a regime shift.. Crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr. identified this event as the sixth such transition from an early bull market to a full bull market since 2012.

Historical data provides a cautiously optimistic outlook for this specific technical crossover... Of the five most recent instances of this regime shift,four resulted in Bitcoin prices ending significantly higher than the entry price of the transition. The only notable exception occurred in August 2015, when the bull market collapsed just 16 days after its inception, causing the market to retreat into early bull territory.

Julio Moreno’s Warning on 33% Unrealized Profits

Despite the bullish technical signals, significant selling pressure is looming on the horizon. High levels of unrealized profit margins are often a precursor to market corrections. According to the report, these margins have reached 33%, a level the source identifies as the highest since December 2024.

The surge in profit-taking is already visible in on-chain data . Analyst Julio Moreno noted that profit-taking selling recently spiked to 25.7k BTC, which the source describes as the highest level in 2026. These metrics suggest that the recent rally may be losing steam, leaving the market vulnerable to a deeper retracement than the minor fluctuations seen over the past week.

Will the $3 Billion ETF Inflow Sustain the Rally?

The central question for investors is whether the massive institutional demand can absorb the current wave of profit-taking. While the MVRV ratio suggests a bull regime is in place, the sheer volume of selling could trigger a volatility event. Market participants are currently watching to see if the following factors will dictate the next move:

  • Whether the 25.7k BTC in profit-taking is a one-time spike or the start of a trend.
  • If the "Uptober" seasonal effect can override the technical warning signs flagged by Julio Moreno.
  • If spot ETF inflowws continue at a pace sufficient to offset the 33% unrealized profit margins.