Bitcoin has climbed 8.10% from its recent Wednesday low of $75,064, successfully reclaiming its 365-day moving average. this technical milestone arrives despite recent volatility following a 25-basis-point interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve.
A pattern resembling the 2023 market bottom
The current price action suggests a growing resilience in the cryptocurrency market despite recent volatility. According to crypto researcher Bull Theory on X,the way Bitcoin is currently absorbing negative headlines and policy uncertainty resembles the market environment seen around the 2023 bottom. This comparison implies that the asset may be building a more stable foundation rather than merely experiencing a short-lived rebound.
If this pattern of absorbing macroeconomic shocks holds, the move above the yearly moving average could signal the early stages of a broader recovery . This would represent a meaningful shift in market structure , indicating that the broader price trend is improving after months of relative weakness.
The rotation of supply away from short-term holders
On-chain metrics indicate a significant shift in how Bitcoin is being distributed among its owners. As the report notes, the total supply held by long-term holders has trended steadily higher since February, while the supply held by short-term holders—defined specifically as coins aged 155 days or less—has seen a notable decline. Crypto analyst Funding Vest has characterized this specific period as a "record phase of accumulation."
This rotation effectively removes liquid supply from the market, which could potentially trigger a supply-driven price shock if new demand begins to surge against a shrinking pool of available coins. When patient holders maintain larger balances while newer investors reduce their positions, the market becomes increasingly sensitive to any sudden increase in buying pressure.
Macro headwinds from the Fed and Bank of Japan
Bitcoin's technical recovery is being tested by a tightening global monetary landscape. The Federal Reserve recently moved to lift interest rates by 25 basis points, and the Bank of Japan has also implemented rate hikes. Furthermore, the failure of the CLARITY Act to advance in the Senate and the possibility of additional rate increases through 2027 create a challenging environment for risk assets.
Beyond interest rates, persistent inflation concerns and a potentially stronger U.S. Dollar Index remain significant variables that could pressure the cryptocurrency's upward momentum. Investors are closely watching whether Bitcoin can continue to absorb these policy headwinds without losing its recent technical gains.
The missing retail participation noted by Joao Wedson
While the technical signals are improving, the depth of the current market rally remains an open question. As reported in the source, analyst Joao Wedson observed that trading activity is currently subdued compared to the levels seen in previous bull-market cycles. This lack of volume suggests that retail participation may still be limited, leaving the market to be driven primarily by existing holders.
This raises a critical concern for the sustainability of the current trend.. Without a broader wave of new buyers to provide widespread liquidity, the current rally may remain vulnerable to sudden reversals if macroeconomic conditions shift or if the current accumulation phase reaches a plateau.
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