A recent analysis from the Council on Criminal Justice indicates a sharp 18% decline in homicides across 30 major U.S. cities between 2025 and 2026. This trend, which includes a significant drop in violent crime lethality, could lead to the lowest annual homicide rate in over a hundred years.
The 18% Drop That Could Signal a Century-Low Homicide Rate
According to the Council on Criminal Justice, the 18% decrease in homicides across 30 monitored American cities represents approximately 215 fewer deaths this year compared to the same period in 2025. The report, released on Thursday, suggests that if these current trajectories hold, the United States may see its lowest annual homicide rate in more than a century by the end of the calendar year.
Beyond the raw number of deaths, the nature of violent crime is shifting. The Council on Criminal Justice report highlights a 23% decrease in the lethality of violent crimes, suggesting that even when violence occurs, it is less likely to result in a fatality than in previous years.
Philadelphia's 23.8% Decline vs. spikes in Norfolk and San Francisco
The data reveals a stark contrast in how different urban centers are experiencing this trend. Philadelphia has emerged as a primary success story, recording a 23.8% decrease in homicides. As the report says, Philadelphia is currently on track to record fewer than 200 homicides for the first time since the 1960s.
However, the decline is not universal. The Council on Criminal Justice noted that cities such as Norfolk and San Francisco actually saw increases in homicides during the same period . This divergence is critical because experts cited in the report attribute the overall positive changes to nationwide factors rather than specific local police or government measures, leaving the spikes in Norfolk and San Francisco as anomalies that challenge the "nationwide factor" theory.
Residential Burglaries Fall 50% Below 2019 Pre-Pandemic Levels
The decline in violence is mirrored by a drop in several non-violent crime categories. Residential burglaries, for instance, have fallen 13% year over year. More strikingly, these figures are 50% lower than the pre-pandemic levels recorded in 2019, suggesting a fundamental shift in how residential crime has evolved since the global health crisis.
In total, the Council on Criminal Justice identified declines in nine different crime categories. Along with residential burglaries, the report notes significant drops in carjackings and aggravated assaults, indicating a broad cooling of street-level volatility across the 30 studied cities.
Rising Shoplifting and Sexual Assaults Amidst the Decline
Despite the drop in lethal violence, the report reveals a troubling increase in other areas. Shoplifting, domestic violence incidents, sexual assaults, and drug offenses have all seen increases. This creates a complex safety profile where the most extreme form of violence is receding , but interpersonal and opportunistic crimes are climbing.
This discrepancy raises several specific questions that the report does not fully answer. While the source attributes the drop in homicides to federal funding and job growth, it provides no explanation for why sexual assaults and domestic violence are rising.. Furthermore, the report does not clarify if the increase in drug offenses is linked to a specific new substance or a failure in local enforcement, leaving a gap in the understanding of current urban crime drivers.
Federal Social Funding and Youth Employment as Drivers of Safety
The Council on Criminal Justice attributes the broad decline in violence to systemic improvements rather than tactical policing. Specifically, the report points to an influx of jobs for young people who are at the highest risk of both committing and falling victim to violence.
Additionally, the report cites decreased drug usage and the strategic application of federal funding for social programming as key contributors to the 18% homicide drop. By addressing the root ecoonomic and social causes of instability, these nationwide factors appear to be outweighing the impact of individual city-level policies.
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