During a bilateral meeting at the United Nations General Assembly, President Donald Trump clarified that the United States will continue to source potash from Canada . This reversal follows his recent suggestion on Truth Social regarding a potential deal with Belarus to lower fertilizer costs for American farmers.
The U-turn from Truth Social to the UN General Assembly
President Trump’s shift in rhetoric comes after he initially signaled a desire to bypass traditional suppliers in favor of a massive deal with Belarus. On Monday,the President used his Truth Social platform to claim that Belarusian potash would be available at substantially lower prices, which he argued would be "very good news" for American ranchers and farmers.. As the report states, this move was seen as a way to drive down global fertilizer prices, which have spiked following U.S. actions regarding Iran and the Strait of Hormuz.
The political stakes for this pivot are high, particularly as the administration faces upcoming midterm elections. The President is looking to appease voters in key agricultural states, including Ohio, Wisconsin, and Iowa, where rising input costs for farming are a major concern. However, during his Tuesday meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Trump pivoted back to the status quo, noting that while Belarus offers lower prices, the U.S . will continue to work with Canada.
The 13-million-tonne production gap and logistical hurdles
The feasibility of a Belarusian deal is heavily undermined by the sheer scale of Canadian production. Canada is currently the world's largest potash producer, yielding approximately 25 million tonnes in 2024, whereas Belarus produces only about 12 million tonnes. Furthermore, the United States relies on Canada for over 85 percent of its potash imports, much of which is mined in Saskatchewan and transported via a highly efficient railway network directly to the U.S. Midwest.
Logistics present a secondary, perhaps more insurmountable, barrier for Belarusian exports. According to the source, Belarus is currently unable to use its traditional export route through the port of Klaipeda in Lithuania, nor can it access facilities in Poland, Latvia, or Ukraine due to international sanctions. This leaves the country reliant on besieged ports in Russia. Josh Linville, a fertilizer analyst at StoneX, noted that even if a country promises volume, it does not matter if they cannot physically move the product out of their borders.
Sanctions and the shadow of the invasion of Ukraine
The proposal to import from Belarus also carries significant ethical and geopolitical weight. Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe condemned the idea of a Belarusian deal, arguing that the country's potash is "unethical" due to its role in the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Belarus has been under international sanctions by the U.S., Canada , and Europe since President Alexander Lukashenko allowed Russian troops to launch their initial attack on Kyiv from Belarusian territory.
While President Trump recently lifted sanctions on the state-owned company Belaruskali following promises to release political prisoners , the broader diplomatic landscape remains hostile to Belarusian trade. This complicates any attempt to integrate Belarusian product into Western supply chains, especially as the largest existing importers of Belarusian potash are already China, India, and Indonesia.
Who will actually negotiate the price of fertilizer?
A significant gap remains between presidential rhetoric and the actual mechanics of the fertilizer market. The U.S . government does not typically purchase potash in bulk or dictate prices; instead, the commodity is managed by private agribusinesses. One of the largest players in this space is the American unit of Nutrien, the Saskatoon-based giant that produces more potash than any other company globally.
This raises several unanswered questions regarding the administration's intentions. Neither the White House nor the office of U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer has provided details on how a prospective deal with Belarus would even function within a market-driven system. It remains unclear whether the administration intends to intevene in private contracts or if the President's comments were merely a negotiation tactic to pressure existing suppliers.
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