US President Donald Trump is weighing a ban on diesel exports to lower domestic fuel costs . In response, G7 nations have agreed to release 100 million barrels of reserves to stabilize global markets.
The 100-million-barrel G7 buffer
French President Emmanuel Macron recently announced that G7 members—including the US, France, Italy, Germany, Japan, Britain, and Canada—will release 100 million barrels of diesel and crude from their stockpiles. The International Energy Agency (IEA) is tasked with coordinating this release to calm record fuel prices. However, as the report notes, this total volume is equivalent to only one day of global oil demand, suggesting the move is a short-term palliative rather than a structural solution.
President Donald Trump indicated on Truth Social that this release heavily involves Europe's own diesel stockpiles. While the G7 has pledged not to restrict petroleum exchanges between partner countries, the underlying tension remains: the US is prioritizing its own domestic price stability over the energy security of its allies.
The 283-million-barrel floor of the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve
The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve currently holds roughly 283 million barrels, a level the report identifies as the lowst since the 1980s. To further lower domestic costs, the White House is reportedly considering an executive order that would allow the widespread use of red-dyed diesel on public roads. As Reuters reported, this tax-exempt fuel is chemically identical to regular diesel but is typically banned from general road use.
Market analysts suggest these domestic maneuvers could slash US gasoline prices by 30 to 40 cents almost immediately. However, Joe Adamski, managing director of ProcureAbility, argues the actual impact may be minimal—perhaps only a few pennies—because the United States already produces the vast majority of the diesel it consumes.
Why 3 euros per liter threatens European trucking
For the European Union, where transport accounts for 77 percent of diesel and gas oil consumption, a US export ban would be catastrophic. Confetra, an Italian freight federation, estimates that such a ban could push EU diesel prices well above 3 euros per liter. Because diesel represents roughly 30 percent of the operating costs for international trucking firms, such a spike could trigger a wave of bankruptcies.
The fragility of the sector is already evident; Jan Buczek, president of Poland's Association of International Road Transport Carriers, noted that over 1,000 companies have already vanished from the Polish international trucking market this year. Small and medium-sized carriers, which lack the credit lines or contract leverage of larger logistics groups, are the most exposed to these price shocks.
The Strait of Hormuz and the 50% reliance on US diesel
Europe's current vulnerability is a direct result of geopolitical instability . According to IRU figures, American diesel now makes up approximately half of Europe's seaborne imports. This reliance grew after the US-Israeli war against Iran disrupted shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries forced Russia to hoard its own supplies.
This shift has created a dangerous dependency. while President Donald Trump has suggested that Iran may "fold up" and that US strikes could resume after the November midterms, Joe Adamski of ProcureAbility warns that disruptions will persist until the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz are fully stabilized .
Who decides the G7 allocation and the timing of the executive order?
Despite the agreement to release reserves, several critical details remain unknown. The G7 leaders have not yet disclosed the specific volume of oil each individual nation will contribute or receive. Furthermore, it remains unclear if the White House will actually sign the red-dyed diesel executive order next week or if the threat of an export ban is primarily a negotiating tactic .
The source relies heavily on industry experts and federation heads, but lacks a direct response from the European Commission regarding how the EU might mitigate a total US export cutoff beyond the G7's temporary reserve release.
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