TC Energy has increased its 2026 profit outlook and announced approximately $3 billion in new infrastructure investmnts. The Calgary-based firm is targeting growing natural gas needs across North America.
The $12 Billion Target for 2026
TC Energy raised its 2026 adjusted core earnings forecast to between $11 .8 billion and $12.0 billion, according to the report. This is an increase from the previous estimate of $11.6 billion to $11.8 billion. The company also outperformed market expectations in the third quarter, posting adjusted earnings of 94 Canadian cents per share, which beat the 86-cent average predicted by LSEG data.
The financial growth is driven largely by the company's U.S. natural gas pipeline business. As the report says, adjusted core profit from these U.S. assets jumped over 17 per cent to $1.25 billion this quarter. Meanwhile, Canadian natural gas pipeline earnings grew by 4.4 per cent to reach $953 million.
Crossroads and American Midwest: Adding 2.4 Billion Cubic Feet Per Day
To sustain this momentum, TC Energy is investing in the Crossroads Expansion and the American Midwest project. these two initiatives, costing US$1.8 billion and US$400 million respectively,will add a combined 2.4 billion cubic feet per day of capacity. This expansion is specifically designed to meet the rising power demands of the U.S. Midwest, where data centers and industrial users are increasing their gas consumption.
This move highlights a critical shift in energy demand. While residential heating remains a staple, the proliferation of energy-hungry AI data centers is creating a new, high-volume customer base for pipeline operators who rely on fee-based systems to generate steady revenue.
Coastal GasLink Phase 2 and the Shift to LNG
The company is also doubling down on long-term exports through the $4.9 billion Coastal GasLink Phase 2 project. This expansion, triggered by a final investment decision from LNG Canada and its partners,aims to lift system capacity to approximately 4.5 bcf/d. While service is not expected until the early 2030s,it represents a strategic pivot toward the global LNG market.
This strategy aligns with a broader North American trend of "coal-to-gas" switching. TC Energy has sanctioned the ANR Optimization project, a US$100 million expansion intended to support this transition in the United States. By replacing older coal plants with gas-fired generation, the company is positioning itself as a primary provider for the energy transition's intermediate phase.
The $40 Billion Development Pipeline and Regulatory Hurdles
Despite the optimistic 2027 profit forecast of $12.3 billion to $12.5 billion, several variables remain. TC Energy has roughly $6 billion in projects currently awaiting approval and a massive $40 billion in potential development opportunities. However, the report does not specify which regulatory bodies are reviewing these projects or the likelihood of environmental challenges that often plague large-scale pipeline builds.
Furthermore, the company's projection of five to seven per cent annual adjusted core profit growth through 2031 relies on sustained demand.. While data centers are a current catalyst, the long-term viability of these investments depends on whether North American power grids continue to favor natural gas over renewables in the coming decade.
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