OPEC’s June 2024 outlook indicated a slight decline in global oil demand for the remainder of the year, while Iran reported its first production cut among OPEC members. The report arrived as the United States launched airstrikes against Iran following the downing of an Apache helicopter in the Strait of Hormuz, sparking renewed geopoiltical friction.

June demand forecast slips to 1.17 million barrels per day

The organization’s latest bulletin recorded a demand forecast of 1.17 million barrels per day (bpd) for the rest of 2024,down from 1.38 million bpd in April and 1.54 million bpd projected for next year in May.. according to the OPEC report, the figure reflects a “healthy” yet modest contraction that analysts attribute to lingering economic uncertainty.

Iran’s crude output drops by 546,000 bpd , the only OPEC decline

Iran announced a reduction of 546,000 bpd in crude production between April and May, making it the sole OPEC nation to post a cut in the period. The decrease was highlighted in the June report and contrasts with output gains reported by Saudi Arabia, Iraq and the United Arab Emirates.

U.S. strikes trigger Iranian chokehold on Hormuz shipping

On Wednesday evening, the United States carried out a round of airstrikes against Iranian targets after Tehran’s forces downed an Apache helicopter in the strategic Strait of Hormuz. In retaliation, Iran resumed its “chokehold” on commercial vessels transiting the waterway, a move that reverberated through energy markets. President Trump warned of a “very difficult” response, underscoring the escalation.

OPEC still expects a rebound to 1.73 million bpd in 2025

Despite the short‑term dip, OPEC forecasts a recovery in global demand to 1.73 million bpd in 2025, a more optimistic outlook than the 1.54 million bpd projected in May. The agency cited anticipated economic growth and a gradual easing of geopolitical risk as drivers of the rebound.

Who will fill the demand gap if tensions persist?

The report leaves open the question of whether non‑OPEC producers, such as the United States and Russia, can offset the shortfall if Hormuz disruptions linger. As the source notes, the energy sector remains “turmoil‑laden,” and analysts are watching inventory builds and price volatility closely.