Even with the Strait of Hormuz blocked for more than three months, global crude prices have lingered under $100 a barrel. A surge in U.S. exports and a sharp drop in Chinese demand have acted as a shock asborber, preventing the price spikes analysts once feared.

U.S. May exports surge 2 million bpd above annual average

According to the source, U.S. crude and fuel shipments in May were more than 2 million barrels per day higher than the average for the entire previous year. This record‑high export flow has become the primary swing supply that compensates for the roughly 10 million barrels per day lost from the Middle East.

China's May crude imports tumble 40% YoY

Data from Vortexa Ltd., cited in the report, show Chinese imports fell by nearly 40% in May compared with the previous year’s average .. That reduction alone offsets bettween one‑third and one‑fifth of the barrels missing due to the Hormuz shutdown, providing a massive demand‑side cushion.

Weekly inventory draws of 70‑80 million barrels strain buffers

Greg Sharenow of PIMCO warned that global oil inventories are being depleted at an unprecedented rate—about 70 to 80 million barrels each week. As the source notes, this relentless drawdown is eroding the strategic reserves that have so far kept prices muted.

Opaque tanker routes keep a trickle through Hormuz

Despite the closure, a limited number of tankers continue to navigate the strait using less transparent methods, according to the source. Maria Angelicoussis, CEO of the Angelicoussis Group, observed that while prices have risen, they have not reached the extreme levels many anticipated, underscoring the market’s adaptability.

When will Hormuz reopen and reserves run dry?

The report highlightts two unresolved questions: the timeline for a full reopening of the strait and whether U.S. export capacity and weak Chinese demand can persist long enough to avoid a crisis. Both factors will dictate whether oil prices stay manageable or surge toward levels that could choke global growth.