Oil prices hit a six-week high on Monday after Iran threatened to target energy infrastructure across the Middle East. This surge follows a weekend of reciprocal attacks between U.S. and Iranian forces on shipping and naval assets.
Brent Crude's Climb to $97.13 and the $120 Forecast
Brent crude futures rose 0.9 percent to US$97.13 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) reached $92.63, according to the report.. These figures represent the strongest price levels seen since July 24.
The market is reacting to heightened volatility and the threat of prolonged disruption. Goldman Sachs has suggested that prices could potentially rally as high as $120 a barrel if attacks on shipping assets continue to increase.
The Weaponization of Commercial Tankers and the Jazan Refinery Strike
The conflict has expanded beyond traditional military targets to include the global supply chain. The maritime intelligence firm Marisks reported that commercial tankers are now being used as tools for reciprocal economic pressure, effectively blurring the line between commercial shipping and military combat.
Concrete strikes have already hit critical infrastructure. The Financial Times reported that Saudi Arabia's Aramco Jazan oil reefinery was attacked on Monday,while a previous attack on a Saudi-owned tanker resulted in the deaths of two seafarers.
Ten Ships a Day: The Drying Up of the Strait of Hormuz
Logistical bottlenecks are tightening at one of the world's most critical energy chokepoints. Data from Kpler indicates that an average of only 10 commodity ships have transited the Strait of Hormuz daily over the last 10 days, marking the lowest volume since May.
The situation is expected to worsen as Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, indicated that Tehran intends to announce a restricted zone outside the Strait of Hormuz. In response, UAE presidential adviser Anwar Gargash stated that the United Arab Emirates is developing alternative export routes to ensure trade is not held hostage by the U.S.-Iran war.
PVM Energy's Warning on US Fuel Inventories
The current price spike is eaxcerbated by dwindling stockpiles in the West. PVM Energy analysts noted that gasoline and distillate fuel inventories in the United States have fallen significantly below five-year seasonal averages and year-ago levels.
This vulnerability is part of a broader trend since the conflict began on February 28, when the U.S. and Israel first struck Iran. As reported, nations have been forced to burn through strategic reserves to prevent total supply deficits as regional oil supply is sharply cut.
The Unverified Source of the Qeshm Island Oil Spill
While the military escalation is clear, some environmental impacts remain mysterious. An oil spill was observed lining the shores of Iran's Qeshm Island on August 13, 2026, yet the source of this pollution has not been independently verified.
Similarly, while OPEC+ met on Sunday and kept its October output policy unchanged, the group has yet to agree on the specific new quotas required to stabilize the market, leaving a gap in the global strategy to counter the current supply shock.
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