The escalating Mideast crisis is exacerbating existing strains on the global metals supply chain, pushing the world towards a resource security-focused economic model, according to Daniel Ghali, Director of Commodities Strategy at TD Securities.

Supply Chain Concerns & Stockpiling

Ghali shared his insights during an interview with BNN Bloomberg on April 08, 2026. He highlighted that the conflict, particularly concerning Iran, is prompting governments to increase stockpiles of essential industrial minerals like aluminum and copper.

Copper Market Pressures

The market’s concerns about future global growth are justified, Ghali stated, as the conflict has already triggered hoarding behavior. Available copper inventories are at record lows, and a significant portion of metal held in exchange warehouses is not readily available for purchase.

China's Dominance & US Tariffs

According to the International Energy Agency, China controls between 40% and 60% of above-ground copper stockpiles. Furthermore, existing tariffs restrict copper access within the United States. Recent adjustments to U.S. tariffs on steel, aluminum, and copper – narrowing penalties based on metal content – are not aimed at easing trade, Ghali explained.

Revitalizing US Smelting

Instead, the tariff adjustments are intended to revitalize American smelting operations. Washington aims to elevate prices through the Midwest premium, incentivizing investment in recycling facilities, reactivating idle smelters, and boosting new smelting capacity within the U.S.

Impact on Gold Purchases

Middle Eastern countries facing economic challenges are prioritizing the U.S. dollar to cover rising energy costs. This is expected to lead to a slight reduction in gold purchases by central banks and the official sector, though this trend could reverse depending on the situation in Iran.

Potential for Gold Market Shifts

The conflict could reignite significant central bank gold buying or contribute to a continuing decline as U.S. dollar reserves regain prominence. Ghali’s analysis underscores the complex interplay between geopolitical events, commodity markets, and economic strategies, emphasizing the importance of resource security in the current global environment.