The global oil market has stayed steadier than expected since the war‑driven supply shock, even though visible traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen to roughly 15% of pre‑conflict levels. analysts suggest that a sizable volume of crude is slipping through the blockade via "clandestine flows" – tankers that turn off transponders to avoid detection – which could be softening the blow to world energy supplies.

Visible traffic at just 15% of pre‑war levels

Data from maritime monitoring firms show that only about one‑sixth of the usual tanker movements are now recorded in the Hormuz corridor, according to the source report. This stark contraction would normally trigger sharp price spikes, yet Brent and WTI futures have hovered within a narrow band . The discrepancy points to a hidden supply stream that market participants may be counting on, even if they cannot see it on satellite feeds .

Clandestine flows may bypass the blockade by turning off transponders

Industry veterans say many vessels are deliberately disabling AIS (Automatic Identification System) signals, a tactic that makes them invisible to standard tracking tools. "These ships are essentially flying under the radar, slipping through the net that the naval blockade has set up," one oil trader quoted in the source noted. if true, such maneuvers could allow millions of barrels per day to continue moving, mitigating the impact of the official traffic drop.

U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve nears early‑1980s low

Commercial oil inventories have been eroding since the conflict began, and the United States' Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) is rapidly approaching its smallest size since the early 1980s, as the source highlights. The dwindling SPR reduces the buffer that policymakers can draw on during emergencies, raising concerns that any sudden disruption in the hidden flows could quickly translate into tighter markets.

How much crude is truly moving unseen?

Quantifying the clandestine shipments remains a challenge. While some analysts estimate that up to 2‑3 million barrels per day could be slipping through, the lack of transponder data means these figures are speculative. The source emphasiizes that oil veterans worry the market may be lulled into a false sense of security, underestimating the real‑world impact if the covert routes were to be curtailed.

Who is orchestrating the covert shipments?

The report does not identify specific actors behind the hidden flows, leaving a gap in accountability. Some observers suspect state‑aligned carriers from the region, while others point to private charter firms exploiting the chaos. Without clear attribution, regulators and insurers face difficulty in assessing risk and enforcing sanctions.