Millions of British motorists are preparing for bank holiday travel this weekend despite a significant rise in fuel costs. the RAC and AA predict heavy congestion across major motorways as a 32C heatwave coincides with the start of school half-term breaks.

The 19 million leisure trips defying fuel costs

According to the RAC, approximately 19 million leisure trips by car are expected between Friday and Monday . This represents an increase of one million trips compared to the previous year's spring bank holiday. The surge in travel suggests that the desire for a long-weekend escape outweighs the financial burden of current energy costs.

The RAC's data, extrapolated from a survey of 2,218 drivers, indicates that 39 per cent of motorists intend to use motorways or major A-roads for their journeys. This trend highlights a persistent reliance on private vehicle travel for domestic tourism in the United Kingdom, even when fuel prices are described by RAC mobile servicing leader Sean Kimberlin as "uncomfortably high."

M25 and M5 bottlenecks during the 32C heatwave

Transport analytics firm Inrix has identified the M1, M5, M6, and M25 as the primary sites for the worst motorway jams. Specifically, the M25 anticlockwise stretch from Junction 10 to Junction 6 is expected to peak around 4:45 pm on Friday as commuters merge with holiday traffic, with journey times potentially doubling by Saturday lunchtime.

Further congestion is anticipated on the M5 southbound between Junction 16 near Bristol and Junction 23 for Bridgwater, where queues of 45 minutes are expected around midday Saturday. these delays are exacerbated by a forecast from the Met Office, which predicts temperatures reaching 32C on Sunday and remaining above the 28C heatwave threshold in London for at least five consecutive days.

The combination of extreme heat and high traffic volume increases the risk of vehicle failure. Sean Kimberlin of the RAC has urged drivers to verify coolant levels and tyre pressure to avoid adding to the gridlock during the hottest period of the year so far.

The gap between RAC leisure data and AA's 23.4 million total journeys

While the RAC focuses on leisure, the AA reports significantly higher volume estimates, predicting 23.4 million total journeys on Friday alone. As reported by the AA, these figures are higher because they include essential work trips and shopping excursions, whereas the RAC figures isolate leisure travel. The AA's research, based on 12,225 member responses, suggests that two-thirds of drivers will be on the road every day of the long weekend.

This travel spike is not solely due to the weather; the AA notes that the final round of Premier League fixtures and the start of school half-term holidays are primary drivers of the volume. Interestingly, the AA found that 40 per cent of drivers are traveling for shopping and 39 per cent for visiting family, suggesting that the "getaway" is often a series of short,local trips rather than long-distance tourism.

The missing data on fuel price thresholds

Despite the emphasis on the "surge" in fuel prices, the source reporting lacks specific pricing data . It remains unclear exactly how many pence per litre the price has risen or what the current average cost is that drivers are finding "uncomfortable." Furthermore, the reports do not specify if the price surge is affecting petrol and diesel equally or if electric vehicle adoption is mitigating these trends for a portion of the 34 .5 million licensed cars in the UK.